Green finance, social inclusion, and sustainable economic growth in OECD member countries (2024)

Over the past three centuries, human endeavors aimed at economic growth and mass production, coupled with population expansion and urbanization, have resulted in the excessive depletion of natural resources, disruption of ecosystems, and the looming threat of climate change. Despite the persistent warnings from environmentalists over the past few decades and the global commitments made by nations, such as the 2015 Paris Agreement, to adhere to environmental preservation principles, global data continues to illustrate the progression of environmental challenges. For instance, according to the NOAA’s 2023 report, the year 2022 ranked among the warmest in recorded history, with a temperature increase of 1.06 °C compared to the pre-industrial era of 1880–1900 and a 0.86-°C rise compared to the entire 20th century (1900–1999). The Guardian’s 2022 report highlights that due to climate change, the Earth is losing its polar ice caps at a rate of nearly 13% per decade, resulting in rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and the intensification of severe storms. Furthermore, the 2023 report from the London School of Economics (LSE) reveals that between 1990 and 2020, ~420 million hectares of forests were lost through deforestation, leading to the release of stored carbon into the Earth’s atmosphere, exacerbating the adverse consequences of climate change. All these detrimental trends affecting natural resources and the planet underscore the critical importance and urgency of implementing sustainable development goals. Since the landmark Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit in 1992, where sustainable development discourse gained significant recognition, countries have endeavored to delineate various facets of sustainability and establish targets and plans to address these pressing issues.

Sustainable development encompasses a wide array of policies, dialogs, and tools aimed at managing human activities while safeguarding the environment (Rasoulinezhad, 2020; Wang et al., 2023; Sun et al., 2023). Many scholars contend that a significant underlying cause of poverty and inequality lies in the overexploitation of natural resources. Therefore, the adoption of sustainability measures can assist countries in reducing energy poverty and curbing the consumption of natural resources. It’s worth noting that the ultimate objective of sustainable development extends beyond enhancing living conditions on Earth. Ruggerio (2021) asserts that sustainable development can provide guiding principles to help nations conserve and restore natural resources. Ostergaard et al. (2022) assert that sustainability represents a commitment by countries to preserve biodiversity and utilize renewable energy resources. During the Rio+20 summit in 2012, the concept of green growth was introduced as an integral component of sustainability and poverty alleviation. Green growth places emphasis on fostering economic growth with minimal environmental repercussions. Through the pursuit of green growth, countries can promote well-being while maintaining ecological sustainability. Xu et al. (2022) and Zakari (2022) delve into the notion that green growth offers a pathway toward achieving net-zero carbon emissions and establishing sustainable economic mechanisms.

A significant challenge for countries striving for sustainable growth lies in their limited access to capital to support green projects. Many nations find themselves facing capital shortages, and unfortunately, green projects often do not hold a high priority in government agendas. Consequently, sustainable initiatives are frequently stalled or abandoned. This issue has been corroborated by Hafner et al. (2020) and Dhutta et al. (2023), who have affirmed that the insufficient financial resources allocated to green projects have hindered the progress of sustainable economic development, resulting in a slow and intricate process. The concept of green finance has garnered acceptance among a cohort of scholars, including Khan et al. (2022) and Umar and Safi (2023), as an effective means to attract private investors to participate in sustainable projects, thereby contributing to the realization of sustainable growth objectives. Green financing mechanisms have the potential to enhance the transparency and accessibility of the market for environmentally friendly projects. Simultaneously, they can stimulate the accumulation of capital from private sector investments through these specialized instruments. Reuters (2022) has reported a remarkable surge in the green finance market over the past decade, with its size growing by over 100-fold. In 2021, the market reached a staggering 3650 billion US dollars, and projections indicate that it could soar to 22,486 billion US dollars by 2031. This dramatic expansion of the green finance market underscores the belief in its positive impact on sustainable prosperity. Xiang and Cao (2023) argue that the green finance market serves as a conduit for attracting private capital and channeling it toward environmentally friendly projects.

Another contentious aspect of sustainable growth revolves around the issue of social inclusion. The incorporation of society is a fundamental bridge toward achieving equality and justice among households from various social strata. Over recent centuries, disparities in income, access to energy, and literacy have come to the forefront, resulting in a widening gap among people, which runs counter to the objectives of sustainability. The implementation of social inclusion initiatives enhances human rights, the availability of resources, cultural diversity, and the affordability of essential resources for all members of society. Hassan et al. (2022) characterize social inclusion as a critical element in an individual’s life, impacting their mental well-being and economic participation. The concept of social inclusion denotes equal opportunity for individuals within a country to thrive in society and engage fully in socioeconomic activities. It can be contended that sustainability measures enable countries to promote social equality and justice, as renewable energy resources become more accessible and cost-effective for households. Simultaneously, these measures make it feasible for households to participate in environmental projects as private investors, ultimately contributing to overall well-being and increased income levels.

This paper primarily aims to assess the influence of green finance and social inclusion on the ecological prosperity of the economy within the context of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member states. Several factors underpin our motivation to examine OECD countries. Firstly, OECD members exhibit a strong commitment to achieving sustainable prosperity in the near future. The OECD Green Growth Strategy, launched in 2011, charted new avenues and possibilities for the preservation of natural resources and environmental protection. However, it is noteworthy that over the past decade, few, if any, OECD nations have been successful in fully implementing their green growth strategies. This challenge of attaining sustainable economic prosperity in OECD countries has been attributed to both social and financial factors, as highlighted by Arbolino et al. (2022) and Ren et al. (2022). The concept of sustainability remains a complex and somewhat enigmatic one in the context of OECD nations, warranting further comprehensive research. Secondly, green finance and sustainable development have emerged as central themes in OECD economies in recent years. OECD member states regularly convene for an annual forum on green finance and investment, aiming to explore opportunities for sustainable finance while discussing associated challenges and impediments. Additionally, the creation of the CEFIM program (Clean Energy Finance and Investment Mobilization) by OECD members underscores their commitment to mobilizing sustainable capital and attracting investors to bolster green financing. The OECD economies’ intention to expand the green finance market holds the potential to significantly contribute to achieving sustainable growth, a primary environmental objective for these member nations. Thirdly, social inclusion is a contentious topic among OECD members and is regarded as a public policy tool for addressing and mitigating poverty and inequality. Allen and Farber (2020) assert that social inclusion equips individuals across different social strata with equal opportunities to participate in economic and social activities. Consequently, this discourse on social inclusion has the potential to exert a positive and productive influence on social well-being and growth within OECD countries.

Our paper makes several valuable contributions to the existing literature. Firstly, we compute the social inclusion index for the surveyed OECD members using the methodology proposed by Hassan et al. (2022). Secondly, we measure inclusive green growth, as conceptualized by Jha et al. (2018), as a comprehensive indicator of green growth for OECD countries. Thirdly, we evaluate the interrelationship between green finance, social inclusion, and sustainable growth within the context of the OECD, offering novel insights and policy implications for member nations. The results derived from the application of the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) technique reveal that social variables such as poverty alleviation and social inclusion do not significantly impact green economic prosperity in OECD countries characterized by an industry-based economic structure. Accordingly, our findings indicate that the coefficients associated with the variables of social inclusion and poverty rate are statistically insignificant in this context. Conversely, the development of the green financing market and the attraction of green foreign direct investment emerge as influential factors in advancing the green development of OECD countries. Therefore, we recommend that OECD nations place greater emphasis on nurturing the green digital finance market, exploring blockchain-based green finance solutions, fostering the development of green foreign direct investment, and promoting the establishment of early warning economic systems to further their sustainability goals.

The subsequent content is structured as follows: Section “Literature review” offers a review of previous literature, aimed at identifying gaps in the existing research. In the subsequent section, “Theoretical background”, we delve into the theoretical underpinnings of our study. Section “Data and estimation steps” provides insights into the data sources and the estimation process employed. Moving forward, the section “Empirical finding” discusses the empirical findings that have emerged from our analysis. Finally, in the section “Conclusion and policy recommendations”, we summarize our findings and offer policy implications.

Numerous scholars have identified sustainable economic prosperity as a pathway to ensure a cleaner and more livable Earth for future generations. Bertinelli et al. (2012) and Zakari and Khan (2022) have elucidated the dimensions of green development, concluding that sustainability leads to an increase in patent applications and a reduction in poverty rates within a country. Moreover, when considering economic growth within a sustainable framework, it results in a more efficient utilization of natural resources. Marques et al. (2018) have explored the relationship between sustainability and economic growth across countries with varying income levels, revealing that sustainability is a multi-dimensional concept with different variables having distinct impacts on the progress of green flourishing in countries of differing income levels. Filimonova et al. (2020) conducted a comprehensive study on the factors influencing economic sustainability in 41 economies from 1990 to 2018. Their findings underscored the complex interplay of factors that determine the advancement or retardation of sustainable goals in the countries examined. Abed-Segura and Zamar (2021) performed a bibliometric analysis of 1689 papers to ascertain the requisites for sustainability within a country, emphasizing the critical importance of establishing meaningful connections between the economy, education, and resource recycling to achieve sustainability objectives. Xu et al. (2022) delved into the relationship between natural resources and sustainable growth in BRICS countries over the period from 1991 to 2014. Their study affirmed that green innovation and the deployment of renewable resources constitute two primary keys to achieving economic sustainability. D’Adamo et al. (2022) provided insights into various aspects of sustainability within 27 European economies, highlighting the necessity of substantial investments and social preparedness in order to transition economic sectors toward greener practices. Shang et al. (2023a) found that promoting electronic exhibitions is one of the important channels for achieving green economic recovery. Finally, Sun et al. (2023) investigated the link between innovation and sustainable growth in E7 countries, with results from the generalized method of moments (GMM) analysis confirming that green innovation is an essential factor in enhancing natural resource efficiency and realizing green growth.

A cluster of prior studies has underscored the significant influence of green finance on advancing sustainability within countries. Pang et al. (2022) employed the Wavelet-based quantile-to-quantile method to examine the effectiveness of green finance. Their research revealed that green finance’s efficacy varies among countries, often due to weak financial development and the absence of effective government regulation in the green finance sector. Akomea-Frimpong et al. (2022) introduced a conceptual framework to elucidate how green finance can enhance environmentally friendly projects. They confirmed that clear regulations, transparency within financial markets, and heightened social awareness constitute three fundamental pillars of success for green finance initiatives. Wang et al. (2022) investigated the connection between green finance and economic sustainability using a global panel data approach. Their findings indicated that green finance accelerates sustainability outcomes by fostering the accumulation of green capital and increasing private sector participation in green projects. Umar and Safi (2023) conducted an assessment of the efficiency of green finance for OECD members, employing the method of movement quantile regression (MMQR). Their results underscored that green finance efficiently contributes to reducing CO₂ emissions. However, it was also emphasized that green finance requires transparency and inclusivity to expand its reach to a broader spectrum of social classes. Wang and Fan (2023) concentrated their research on China, aiming to identify the characteristics of green finance that influence investors’ decisions. They found that green financing tools can mitigate investment risks and guarantee a reasonable return on investment, thus making sustainable projects more appealing to investors. Shang et al. (2023b) research indicates that issuing green bonds has a positive impact on the long-term green efficiency of China’s tourism industry.

Another significant thread in prior literature has focused on examining the connection between social inclusion and sustainability. Haase et al. (2017) delved into the idea that social inclusion might not necessarily align with the goals of greening the economy and society. Their work emphasized that social and ecological progress tends to align when social inclusion, particularly through education and awareness, is extended across a country. Kohon (2018) expanded on the discourse surrounding the relationship between social inclusion and sustainability. The study affirmed that achieving green prosperity is unattainable without concurrent social inclusion because greening economic sectors necessitates a reduction in poverty gaps and income inequality. Villar et al. (2020) explored the interplay between social inclusion and sustainable growth within technology-based industries in Mexico. Their research asserted that social inclusion broadens income levels in an economy, resulting in increased investments in sustainable projects and, consequently, an augmentation of the green capabilities of the economy. Carnemolla et al. (2021) scrutinized the concept of social inclusion in Australian cities and concluded that an increase in social inclusion fosters individuals’ self-realization within society, enhances social participation and responsibilities, and consequently elevates the importance of sustainability in such societies. Jabeen and Khan (2022) analyzed the relationship between environmental protection and social inclusion in Pakistan from 1990 to 2019. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), their findings indicated that social inclusion has a direct impact on natural resource protection, reduces carbon intensity through income equality, and alleviates poverty.

The studies mentioned above highlight that earlier research has not adequately addressed the influence of green finance and social inclusion on the sustainable growth of OECD member nations. This paper seeks to address this gap in the literature by examining the relationship between the size of the green financial market and the social inclusion index in selected OECD member countries and their impact on the inclusive green growth index.

Green finance and social inclusion impact green economic growth through distinct channels. In the case of green finance, it serves as a catalyst for private-sector investment (Rasoulinezhad and Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2022). Consequently, one of the primary transmission channels through which green finance influences sustainable growth is by encouraging private sector participation in sustainable projects. Additionally, green finance fosters the development of a country’s financial markets by facilitating capital accumulation. The growth of a country’s financial markets directly correlates with its capacity to advance sustainable development and green growth goals. Another important transmission channel is the enhancement of the efficiency of natural resource utilization (Zhao and Rasoulinezhad, 2023) through the funding of green projects. By channeling accumulated capital into environmentally friendly initiatives, the green finance market reduces reliance on fossil fuels and promotes the consumption of renewable energy within a nation. Furthermore, by ensuring proper returns on investment and instilling investor confidence, the green finance market diminishes investment risks (thereby reducing uncertainty) in the economy, ultimately becoming a driving force behind the achievement of green development objectives within a country. Regarding social inclusion, it’s evident that reducing the poverty gap through social inclusion policies can have a profound impact on sustainable development goals (Santana, 2002). Closing the poverty gap enhances the financial capacity of society and stimulates demand for renewable energy sources. Moreover, fostering economic equity within society through financial inclusion policies increases access to energy resources at fairer prices (Sareen, 2021). Social justice simultaneously leads to economic prosperity and investment within an economy. Additionally, social inclusion can prepare society to embrace sustainable literacy (Ragnedda et al., 2022) and encourage participation in small-scale environmentally friendly projects, such as local sustainable electricity generation.

Considering the transmission channels discussed, the appropriate variables for the empirical model, in addition to green finance, social inclusion, and green growth, include green foreign direct investment (FDI), poverty rate, energy resource efficiency, and economic uncertainty.

In this study, we focus on a case study comprising 31 OECD countries, namely Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We aim to assess the impacts of green finance and social inclusion on sustainable growth over the period spanning from 2010 to 2021. Our dataset comprises 372 observations (12 years multiplied by 31 countries). Regarding the dependent variable, we utilize the inclusive green growth indicator proposed by Jha et al. (2018) as a comprehensive measure of green growth within OECD countries. Additionally, we consider the size of the green finance market and the social inclusion index (calculated using the method proposed by Hassan et al. (2022)) as the explanatory variables in our analysis. In alignment with the theoretical framework, we incorporate green foreign direct investment (FDI), poverty rate, energy resource efficiency, and economic uncertainty as control variables in our empirical model. Descriptions of the selected variables (dependent, explanatory, and control) are provided in Table 1 for reference.

It is anticipated that the size of the green financial market will exhibit a positive correlation with green economic growth in the selected OECD countries. The expansion of the green financial market is expected to attract more capital for advancing environmentally focused projects, ultimately bolstering the green prosperity of these countries. Likewise, the financial inclusion index is expected to foster green prosperity within the chosen OECD nations. Financial inclusion promotes broader community engagement in social and economic activities, potentially leading to improved sustainability literacy, greater private sector participation in sustainable projects, and a shift towards more responsible consumption of natural resources. Foreign direct investment in green projects is also anticipated to have a positive impact on the green prosperity of OECD countries. The influx of foreign investments into various green initiatives can facilitate the development of renewable energy consumption and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Conversely, the poverty rate is a variable expected to exert a negative influence on green prosperity. As the number of individuals living in poverty increases within society, the disparity in energy access and income widens, diminishing the society’s drive to attain sustainable development goals. Efficiency in energy resource utilization is projected to have a favorable effect on the green growth of the selected OECD countries. Enhanced energy resource efficiency is likely to reduce energy intensity in production processes, creating opportunities for the preservation and restoration of natural resources, ultimately contributing to the achievement of green development objectives. Lastly, economic uncertainty is anticipated to negatively impact the green development of the countries examined in this research. Heightened uncertainty translates to increased risk in economic activities and investments, potentially reducing investor participation in green projects.

In terms of estimating the coefficients of the variables, the analysis follows a structured process. First, the presence of cross-sectional dependency (CD) among cross-section units is assessed using Pesaran’s CD test (Pesaran, 2004). If cross-sectional dependency is detected, the analysis proceeds with the application of first-generation panel unit root tests, which are deemed appropriate. Next, the order of integration of the selected variables is examined through the use of stationary tests such as LLC (Levin, Lin, and Chu) and IPS (Im, Pesaran, and Shin). These tests help determine whether the variables are integrated into order one, which is crucial for further analysis. Subsequently, additional tests, namely the Westerlund (2007) and Kao residual tests, are conducted to investigate the presence of a co-integrating relationship between the variables. If evidence of a long-term association between the variables is found, panel co-integration estimation methods can be applied. In this regard, the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) method is utilized, and dynamic OLS (DOLS) is employed to ensure the robustness and reliability of the empirical findings. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) test is employed to identify any causal linkages between the dependent and explanatory variables, shedding light on the direction of influence among these variables within the model.

The estimation of variable coefficients commences with an examination of the presence of cross-sectional dependency (CD) within the panel dataset. The results of Pesaran’s CD test are presented in Table 2, which conclusively rejects the notion of cross-sectional independence within the panel. Consequently, it is appropriate to proceed with the first generation of unit root tests to assess the stationarity of the series.

Continuing the analysis, panel unit root tests, specifically the LLC and IPS tests, are conducted to ascertain the stationarity status of the variables. The results, as presented in Table 3, indicate that all the series exhibit stationarity at the first order of integration (I(1)).

Given that the variables have been established as stationary at the first order of integration (I(1)), the next crucial step is to assess whether these series exhibit a long-run cointegration relationship. To address this, both the Westerlund’s test and the Kao residual test have been carried out. The results of these panel co-integration checks are presented in Tables 4 and 5.

The results from Tables 4 and 5 confirm the presence of a co-integration relationship among the variables. Consequently, it is appropriate to employ a panel co-integration estimation approach to evaluate the coefficients of the independent variables. The estimation of coefficients is conducted using the Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) estimation technique, and the results of this estimation are presented in Table 6.

Based on the estimated coefficients, it is evident that the size of the green financing market has a positive impact on the green growth of the selected OECD countries. Specifically, a 1% increase in the size of the green financing market is associated with a roughly 0.019% increase in the green growth rate of the studied nations. This outcome reflects that green financing contributes to capital accumulation through private sector investments, thereby facilitating the implementation of more environmentally friendly projects and promoting green development in the selected OECD countries.

Contrary to expectations, the social inclusion index exhibits a non-significant coefficient. In other words, improvements in social inclusion, which entail greater public participation in social and economic affairs, do not have a significant effect on OECD member countries. This may be attributed to the fact that OECD countries typically possess an industry-based economic structure, where industries play a substantial role in environmental pollution and carbon dioxide emissions. Consequently, discussions regarding sustainable development goals may need to focus more on transforming the industries of these countries rather than placing a heavy emphasis on social inclusion.

On a positive note, green investment demonstrates a significant and positive effect. Any increase in green investment is found to promote green projects, reduce dependence on fossil fuels, and enhance the green growth of the studied countries.

In contrast to expectations, the poverty rate does not exhibit a significant coefficient. In other words, fluctuations in the poverty rate do not significantly impact the improvement or decline of sustainable growth in OECD countries. The efficiency of natural resource utilization demonstrates a favorable impact on the green growth of the studied countries. Specifically, a 1% increase in the efficiency of natural resource utilization is associated with a 0.32% promotion in the sustainable growth of the studied countries. Economic uncertainty is found to have an adverse effect on the green economic prosperity of OECD countries. Increased uncertainty raises investment risks and reduces investor willingness to participate in green projects. To ensure the robustness of the empirical estimations, coefficients are re-estimated using the Dynamic OLS (DOLS) approach. The findings of this robustness check, as reported in Tables 7 and 8, support the earlier signs of coefficients presented in Table 6.

The analysis reveals important insights into the relationships between key variables in the context of sustainable growth in OECD countries. The size of the green finance market is found to positively impact green growth, reflecting the role of private sector investments in promoting environmentally friendly projects. Surprisingly, the social inclusion index does not exhibit a significant influence, potentially due to the dominance of industry-based economies in OECD nations. Green investment emerges as a significant driver of green projects and reduced fossil fuel dependence. Conversely, the poverty rate does not significantly affect sustainable growth. Enhanced efficiency in natural resource utilization positively impacts green growth, while economic uncertainty negatively affects it. Robustness checks using Dynamic OLS reaffirm these findings. The causal analysis suggests a feedback relationship between green growth and the green finance market, while green growth unidirectionally influences the social inclusion index. These findings illuminate the complex dynamics underpinning sustainable growth and inform policy considerations for OECD member states.

Over the past three centuries, human endeavors to foster economic growth and mass production, coupled with population expansion and urbanization, have led to the excessive depletion of natural resources, ecological disruption, and the looming specter of climate change. Scholars have contended that the primary underpinning of poverty and inequality lies in the over-exploitation of these finite resources. Consequently, the pursuit of sustainability emerges as a means to mitigate energy poverty and curtail the profligate consumption of natural resources. This study’s principal objective was to gauge the influence of green finance and social inclusion on the green economic prosperity of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member states during the 2010–2021 period, utilizing the panel co-integration estimation technique. The empirical findings underscore that in OECD countries characterized by industry-based economies, green growth remains largely unaffected by social variables such as poverty alleviation and social inclusion. As a result, the coefficients for these two variables were deemed insignificant. Conversely, the development of the green financing market and the attraction of green foreign direct investment emerge as pivotal drivers of progress in the green development of OECD nations. Both these variables serve as catalysts for environmentally friendly projects, including initiatives in renewable energy development and energy efficiency enhancement, with each such project contributing to the advancement of green prosperity across economic sectors.

As a pragmatic policy prescription, it is advisable for OECD nations to expand their digital green financing market, leveraging cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. The adoption of digital green financing tools not only offers accessibility to investors regardless of their geographic location and time constraints but also enhances market transparency and expedites administrative processes. Additionally, strategic planning to augment the proportion of green investment stemming from Foreign Institutional Investments (FII) is a crucial applied policy initiative. OECD countries can harness the potential of green foreign direct investment to advance technology-driven and environmentally sustainable projects. Furthermore, it is prudent to address economic uncertainty through the implementation of policies aimed at bolstering financial and economic resilience and establishing pre-crisis warning systems within OECD nations. Mitigating uncertainty in the economic landscape will attract increased private sector funding towards environmentally friendly ventures.

For future research endeavors, it is advisable to complement existing methodologies with country-level surveys to further assess the intricate interplay between green financing, social inclusion, and green prosperity. Exploring the sensitivity of green growth within individual countries to social crises and fluctuations in financial markets holds considerable significance for future investigations. Additionally, delving into the impact of environmental taxation and sustainable literacy on the nexus between social inclusion and green growth in OECD countries can yield practical insights with direct relevance to policymaking. These avenues of inquiry are poised to enrich our understanding of the complex dynamics underpinning sustainable development and offer valuable guidance for crafting effective policies in an ever-evolving global landscape.

Authors and Affiliations

1. Zhejiang Yuexiu University, Shaoxing, China

   Jian Han&HaiYan Gao

Contributions

All authors contributed to the study’s conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by JH. Literature review and policy implications were written by HYG. All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to HaiYan Gao.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Ethical approval

This article does not contain any studies with human participants performed by any of the authors.

Informed consent

This article does not contain any studies with human participants performed by any of the authors.

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