GBP/USD pared away some gains on Monday, falling from 1.2860 back into the 1.2800 price handle as markets trim rate cut expectations from the Bank of England (BoE). According to the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS), the BoE is expected to deliver a first rate trim in August versus the previously-expected May.
Investors are looking ahead to Tuesday’s UK labor figures, followed by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print. Markets continue to chew on hopes for a rate cut from the BoE and the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The UK’s ILO Unemployment rate for the quarter ended January is expected to hold steady at 3.8%, while Average Earnings Including Bonuses for the annualized quarter ended in January are forecast to slip to 5.7% from the previous 5.8%. With Average Wages Excluding Bonuses expected to hold steady at 6.2%, markets expect consumers’ bonuses to decline.
US CPI Preview: Forecasts from 10 major banks, inflation still too high
February’s US MoM CPI print is expected to accelerate to 0.4% from 0.3% as uneven inflation continues to weigh. Core MoM CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to tick down to 0.3% from 0.4%.
Annualized CPI is forecast to hold at 3.1% with Core YoY CPI expected to come in at 0.3% versus the previous 0.4%.
Interested in weekly GBPUSD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the pound-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
FAQs
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Current fall from 1.2892 is in progress for 100% projection of 1.2892 to 1.2538 from 1.2708 at 1.2354. Firm break there will target 161.8% projection at 1.2207 next. On the upside, above 1.2510 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.
Why is GBPUSD going up? ›
The British pound dipped 0.30% earlier today but has managed to recover the losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2451, up 0.12%. The UK release retail sales were flat in March, after a revised 0.1% gain in February and missing the market estimate of 0.3%.
What is the target for Gbpusd? ›
GBPUSD Price Analysis
The expected trading range for today is between 1.2300$ support and 1.2460$ resistance.
Is Eurusd bullish or bearish? ›
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will resume the decline from 1.1138 to 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536 next.
Is GBP USD bullish or bearish? ›
The strong short-term increase in GBP/USD calls into question the currently slightly bearish basic trend. A trend reversal is likely. As long as the price remains above 1.2418 USD, you could consider…
Is GBP expected to go up? ›
The GBP/EUR forecast for 2023 from algorithm-based forecaster Wallet Investor was bullish on the long-term outlook, predicting that the pair could trade at 1.124 in early 2024, and at 1.158 in five years' time. The site's GBP/EUR forecast for 2025 saw the pair trading at 1.133 in January of that year.
Why is GBP dropping against USD? ›
Strong Wage Data Underpins the Pound
The British Pound dipped against the Euro and Dollar after the unemployment rate in the UK rose to 4.2% in February from 3.9%, which was higher than the 4.0% expected by the market.
Why is GBP dropping? ›
The Pound to Euro exchange rate fell to 1.17 from 1.1710 in the minutes after the ONS said the UK economy shrank 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the final quarter of 2023, which makes for two consecutive quarters of contraction owing to Q3's shrinkage.
Why did GBP USD fall? ›
Following Bank of England signals of potential rate cuts, GBP/USD dropped below 1.2700, falling over 100 pips. Inflation declines and UK's economic outlook could drive the pair to new lows, amid higher US rates.
When to trade GBPUSD? ›
There are two different times when trading of GBP/USD is at an optimal level. The first being between 3am – 4am Eastern Daylight Time. The second is at the intersection of the US and European markets. At these two times, you'll find that there are a massive amount of trades taking place.
The most notable overlap is between the London and New York sessions (from 12:00 PM to 4:00 PM GMT), which are informally known as GBP/USD trading hours. Both GBP and USD see higher trading volumes during this overlap, leading to potentially more significant price movements in the GBP/USD pair.
What is the best time of day to trade GBP USD? ›
The best time for trading GBP/USD is when both UK and US markets are open for trading. This is from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM GMT and from 12:00 pm TO 15:00 PM GMT. This is when the greatest market moves occur and when spreads are at their lowest.
What is the strongest currency in the world? ›
The Kuwaiti dinar continues to remain the highest currency in the world, owing to Kuwait's economic stability. The country's economy primarily relies on oil exports because it has one of the world's largest reserves. You should also be aware that Kuwait does not impose taxes on people working there.
Is bullish buy or sell? ›
To take a bullish position, you would buy the market. You can do this either by investing in the underlying market, or by trading on its price. Most investors will be bullish by default, because by investing in shares (or other assets) they own the asset outright and so rely on the market rising to realise a profit.
How do you know if a market is bullish? ›
Market Momentum: Bull Markets are characterized by sustained upward momentum in stock prices. Look for a series of higher highs and higher lows on price charts, indicating an overall positive trend. When stocks are 20% above their previous low, that is the technical signal of a new Bull Market.
Will GBP to USD go down? ›
The British Pound has been range-bound against the US Dollar so far in 2024. Put simply, there doesn't appear to be a clear underlying trend in the short term. We see the medium-term trend in GBP/USD as remaining positive with the US expected to cut interest rates in 2024 many months before the UK does.
What is the year forecast for GBP USD? ›
Will US Dollar get stronger against British Pound Sterling in 2024? US Dollar is expected to drop by -0.79% against the British Pound Sterling by the end of 2024, as the GBP/USD rate is expected to reach $ 1.233457.
Will the Pound get stronger against the Dollar in 2024? ›
British Pound Sterling is expected to rise by 0.53% against the US Dollar by the end of 2024, as the USD/GBP rate is expected to reach £ 0.807348.
Is it better to exchange pounds to dollars in UK or US? ›
Is it better to get dollars in the UK or the US? It could be more beneficial to buy your dollars in the UK rather than when when you arrive in the US. This is because the pound-to-dollar exchange rate in the UK is can be better than some of the rates offered by providers in America.
