European ETF industry outlook 2022 (2024)

CSDR, the long-awaited arrival of a consolidated tape and data transparency on trades are all key focuses for the European ETF industry this year as the market looks to build on a record-breaking 12 months in 2021.

According to data from Bloomberg Intelligence, ETFs in Europe saw $162bn inflows last year taking its overall assets under management (AUM) to almost $1.5bn, driven by increasing demand from retail investors and greater acceptance of the ETF wrapper following the stress test in March 2020.

While there are no “significant risks in the ETF structure” as highlighted by the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) last year, the secondary market in Europe remains fragmented.

As Michael O’Riordan, founding partner at Blackwater Search & Advisory, perfectly summarised: “In Europe, the ETF market has over 80 issuers operating across 30 exchanges in 25 countries, and what feels like an endless number of regulatory bodies.

“This means that you are dealing with 13 different currencies for trading and settlement, different listing requirements for each exchange, varying country regulations and operating models and different clearing agencies. The majority of trades are done over-the-counter (OTC), and because of this combined with fragmentation, there is no consolidated tape making true transparency elusive.”

While talk of a consolidated tape has been rumbling on since MiFID II came into effect in 2018, efforts to see its introduction were ramped up at the end of last year by the European Commission.

Understanding the full liquidity picture of ETFs across Europe is expected to give more confidence to a wider base of investors and could further the adoption of UCITS ETFs in Asia and Latin America, who may currently use US-domiciled ETFs instead.

Jim Goldie, head of ETF capital markets and indexed strategies, EMEA, at Invesco, predicted 2022 could be the year where significant steps are taken to see its implementation.

“While there is still a lot of work to be done in this space and we would not expect it to be a quick win, it is something we will continue to strive towards this year as an industry,” Goldie stressed. “A consolidated tape for ETPs, equities and bonds would be a big contributor to improved transparency and investor protection and certainly something we hope to see in the not-too-distant future.”

CSDR

Another attempt to improve market structure is the Central Securities Depositary Regime (CSDR) which comes into effect in February this year.

Simon Barriball, ETP and portfolio trading, Europe, at Virtu Financial, warned the ETF industry has not fully considered the impact the CSDR directive will have.

While implemented with the best intentions, he said the incoming rules around fines for late settlement will have the unintended consequence of leading to wider spreads for investors.

“All market participants would like to see a higher percentage of trades settle on their due value date,” Barriball said. “The question is what price are they willing to pay in terms of the impact on trading spreads. If market makers have to cover inventory more promptly and via potentially more costly routes such as going direct to the primary market, then there will be a price to pay in terms of spreads.”

In order to keep fines at a minimum, Barriball stressed the importance of settling the correct depositary and ensuring firms agree to partial settlement as often as possible.

“The majority of ETFs are on the ICSD settlement model with Euroclear as the main settlement depositary,” he continued. “Euroclear does not auto partial – unlike CREST – so this will require more work by all parties to manage partial settlement and minimise late settlement fines across the ETF market.”

Despite the “operational burden” for firms, Goldie said he is hopeful CSDR will be a positive for the European ETF ecosystem.

“From a market structure perspective, CSDR will certainly be one of the big focal points of 2022, not just for ETFs, but for equities and bonds too.”

“It will certainly increase the operational burden for many firms when it is rolled out next month, however, we are hopeful that it will ultimately result in an improved settlement ecosystem for ETFs, stocks and bonds, which will be to the benefit of investors overall.”

One area Clearstream is currently focused on is addressing the opaque nature of the European ETF market by providing information into who holds ETFs.

This, Allan Stewart, vice president, investment fund services at Clearstream, said, will give ETF issuers a better understanding of how investors are using their ETFs.

“Issuers are largely blind about where their ETFs are sold,” he said. “The UCITS ETF OTC market is very opaque so we are now looking to profile the market.”

Battle for number two

In early 2019, DWS was locked in a battle with Lyxor to become Europe’s second-largest ETF issuer behind BlackRock. Following Société Générale acquisition of Commerzbank’s ETF range ComStage it left Lyxor ahead of DWS, however, the German ETF issuer has stormed ahead in the past two years.

DWS will now have to contend with the combined forces of Lyxor and Amundi after the latter acquired the French rival for €825m last year.

Amundi has big plans and is targeting 50% AUM growth across its passive platform by 2025. How DWS looks to challenge this will be interesting to see but ESG will likely be a key battleground over the next five years.

Related articles

  • ‘More questions than answers’: CSDR impact divides ETF industry

  • Euroclear: CSDR directive to cause ETF settlement inefficiencies

  • Consolidating Lyxor’s ETF range key for Amundi in battle with rival DWS

European ETF industry outlook 2022 (2024)

FAQs

What is the outlook for the European ETF? ›

The research by accountancy firm EY projected a 15% annual growth over the next five years for the European ETF market, with assets under management expected to surpass $4.5 trillion by 2030.

What is the best performing ETF 2022 Europe? ›

Topping the charts is the Lyxor MSCI Turkey UCITS ETF (TURL) which returned 89% in 2022 and was the best-performing ETF in Europe over the period.

How big is the ETF market in Europe? ›

As for the overall structure of the European ETF industry, it was not surprising equity funds (€1,228.0 bn) held the majority of assets, followed by bond funds (€375.4 bn), commodities products (€31.7 bn), money market products (€27.6 bn), alternatives products (€7.1 bn), and mixed-assets funds (€3.1 bn).

What are the projections for the ETF market? ›

Growth Projections: Capitalising on global demand

Global ETF AuM is expected to exceed $19.2 trillion by June 2028. This would represent a five-year CAGR of 13.5%, more than double the anticipated 5% CAGR for the AWM industry as a whole in the five years up to 2027.

Should I invest in Europe now? ›

The European economy has its problems, but with interest rates set to fall and equities looking good value, this could be a chance for growth stock-pickers to 'buy the dip'. Markets in the last couple of years have been very much macro driven. We believe 2024 may be different.

Is it a good time to invest in Europe? ›

In short, we are very positive on the immediate outlook for European bonds. High yield levels translate into an attractive carry, i.e., income for investors, and the prospect of future rate cuts further increases performance potential.

Are European ETFs a good investment? ›

Investing in Europe ETFs can be an attractive option for investors looking to diversify their portfolios and capitalize on potential growth opportunities. With rising European markets, relatively stable political environment, and still-lesser interest rates, Europe ETFs may be a better bet than U.S. ETFs.

What is the most traded ETF in Europe? ›

Europe Equities ETFs
Symbol SymbolETF Name ETF Name% In Top 10 % In Top 10
BBEUJPMorgan BetaBuilders Europe ETF23.22%
EZUiShares MSCI Eurozone ETF29.32%
DBEFXtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF17.44%
IEURiShares Core MSCI Europe ETF20.30%
3 more rows

What is the best ETF to buy in Europe? ›

  • SPDR® Portfolio Europe ETF. SPEU | ETF. ...
  • Xtrackers MSCI Europe Hedged Equity ETF. DBEU | ETF. ...
  • iShares MSCI Europe Small-Cap ETF. IEUS | ETF. ...
  • JPMorgan BetaBuilders Europe ETF. BBEU | ETF. ...
  • Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF. VGK | ETF. ...
  • iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF. IEUR | ETF. ...
  • WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend ETF. ...
  • SPDR® EURO STOXX 50 ETF.

Why are US ETFs not available in Europe? ›

European and United Kingdom-based retail investors can only invest in ETFs that conform to specific EU UCITS regulations. This means that US-domiciled ETFs are not available for EU and UK investors to trade via European brokers, as they do not meet the regulatory requirements.

What is the largest European sp500 ETF? ›

iShares Core S&P 500 Accumulating (IE00B5BMR087)

This fund is the largest S&P 500 ETF available in Europe! ✅ Distribution of dividends. The fund is accumulating, meaning dividends are directly reinvested and no 30% tax on dividends needs to be paid.

Are European investors now blocked from investing in one of the most popular ETFs? ›

But if you're an investor in Europe, you're now missing out on one of the biggest, most popular ones -- the SPY. The world's largest exchange-traded fund -- the $270 billion SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which is listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker SPY -- is no longer available to buy for retail investors in the continent.

What is the fastest growing ETF? ›

Compare the best growth ETFs
FUND(TICKER)EXPENSE RATIO10-YEAR RETURN AS OF APRIL 1
iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF)0.19%15.78%
iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW)0.18%14.34%
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF (SCHG)0.04%15.95%
SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG)0.04%14.45%
3 more rows

What are the projections for ETF in 2024? ›

The Department of Employee Trust Funds (ETF) projects an increase in both the Core and Variable effective rates of interest in 2024. The Core effective rate is projected to be between 8.8% and 9.2%, with the Variable effective rate between 20% and 24%.

What is the best performing ETF last 10 years? ›

Top 10 ETFs by 10-year Performance
TickerFund10-Yr Return
SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF24.37%
SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF23.62%
PSIInvesco Dynamic Semiconductors ETF23.59%
XSDSPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF21.88%
6 more rows

What is the outlook for European equities in 2024? ›

EPS for the MSCI Europe are forecast to increase by 3% in 2024 with a stronger rebound in 2025 at 10% (current consensus estimates). European equity markets continued to edge upwards, witnessing a strong first quarter but with a lack of market breadth.

What is the outlook for Europe Equity in 2024? ›

According to our latest European Private Equity Outlook, 65% of industry experts anticipate an increase in M&A transactions with private equity (PE) involvement in 2024. "We see a significant change in sentiment compared to 2023 with anticipated higher volumes of M&A transactions involving private equity."

What is the outlook for the European equity market in 2024? ›

LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - European stocks will hit all-time highs in 2024, a Reuters poll found, as the prospect of interest rate cuts, hopes for a soft landing and strong earnings momentum fuel optimism. Fund managers and equity strategists surveyed Feb. 9-21 expect the pan-European benchmark STOXX 600 (.

What is the market outlook for the EU in 2024? ›

The growth outlook for 2024 is revised down to 0.9% in the EU and 0.8% in the euro area. In 2025, economic activity is still expected to expand by 1.7% in the EU and 1.5% in the euro area. EU HICP inflation is forecast to fall from 6.3% in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025.

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