Are You Hoping for The Stock Market to Fall? - Retire by 40 (2024)

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Are You Hoping for The Stock Market to Fall? - Retire by 40 (1)Is anyone else hoping for the stock market to fall? The S&P 500 index dropped over 10% earlier this year, but it has been on the upswing for the last two weeks. I’m hoping the stock market would fall even more because I haven’t finished contributing to my solo 401k for 2015 yet.

I contributed $1,500 every month last year and I maxed out the employee salary deferral portion of my i401k. The maximum contribution for 2015 was $18,000 for those under the age of 50. I also contributed $2,000 extra as the “employer contribution” to bring my total up to $20,000. The solo 401k enables you to contribute 25% of your income as employer contribution if you’re self employed. The problem is I don’t know exactly how much I can sock away in my 401k until I finish doing tax. Anyway, I’m almost done with tax and the result is I can contribute $24,500 to my solo 401k for 2015. That’s why I want the stock market to drop in the next 30 days or so. I need to contribute $4,500 to my solo 401k before April 15th and it would be niceif the market is down when I do so.

Market Timing doesn’t work

Theoretically, I shouldn’t even worry about it and just pull the trigger right now. Market timing doesn’t work for individual investors for variety of reasons. Let’s take a look at some of them.

  • Dollar cost averaging is easier for most people. Most regular people get paid on schedule and it’s best to invest right away via automatic deduction. If you wait, then you’re more likely to spend the money.
  • Time in the market. The stock market is set up to grow. In the long run, we will see more good days than bad ones. If you have a lump sum to invest, the odds are better to invest it as soon as you can. That way, you will be in the stock market longer and benefit from more growth.
  • Market timing requires 2 correct decisions. You need to know when to sell and when to buy. If you’re wrong on either one, then you’ll lose.
  • Even professionals can’t do it. Less than 1% of mutual fund managers beat the stock market index consistently (after taking expense into account.)
  • Market timing cost money. You need to pay transaction fee whenever you make a transaction. If you do it frequently enough, the fee will nibble away at your portfolio. You also will need to pay tax on any gain. You will need to significantly outperform the index to beat it. Actually, this one doesn’t matter in a 401k because tax is deferred and you usually don’t pay transaction fee in your 401k.

It won’t matter much in the long run

Lastly, it won’t matter much in the long run. $4,500 isn’t that much money. If the stock market falls 10% the day after I invest $4,500, that’s a decrease of just $450. That’s less than .5% of my solo 401k balance. Of course, it would be nice to get in at a low point, but it won’t make much difference in the long run. As long as you keep adding to your 401k, your portfolio should look like this graph below. This is why I max out my 401k every year.

Are You Hoping for The Stock Market to Fall? - Retire by 40 (2)

I love this graph and I hope to keep adding to my solo 401k for as long as I can. I use Personal Capital to keep track of my portfolio and it’s easy to check on any of my accounts. You can also check how much fee you are paying in your retirement fund with their 401k fee Analyzer. I’m paying just 0.17% on my solo 401k, that’s pretty darn good. Sign up for a free account with Personal Capital if you don’t already have one.

Disclosure: I may receive a referral fee if you sign up with Personal Capital through the link above.

Are you in the same position as I am and hoping for the stock market to fall so you can pick up some shares at a bargain?

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Joe started Retire by 40 in 2010 to figure out how to retire early. After 16 years of investing and saving, he achieved financial independence and retired at 38.

Passive income is the key to early retirement. This year, Joe is investing in commercial real estate with CrowdStreet. They have many projects across the USA so check them out!

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Are You Hoping for The Stock Market to Fall? - Retire by 40 (2024)

FAQs

Should you retire when the stock market is down? ›

Plus, there are a few extra steps you can take to help lessen risk and retire more confidently. While it may feel easier said than done, “a volatile market shouldn't dictate whether or not you retire,” says Mindy Yu, director of investing at Betterment at Work.

Is $4 million enough to retire at 40? ›

Retiring early with $4 million is very possible, but requires some planning. Make sure you enter your retirement with a diversified investment portfolio, a smart budget and a plan for how to navigate the years before many traditional retirement benefits are available to you.

Is saving for retirement at 40 too late? ›

If you're starting to save for retirement at 40, that's not ideal, but it's also far from being too late. While the standard advice is to begin stashing away money for retirement in your early 20s, that's not what most people do, as it turns out.

How much should you have for retirement by 40? ›

By age 40, your savings goals should be somewhere in the neighborhood of three times that amount. According to 2023 data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average annual income hovers around $62,000. This means retirement savings goals for 40-somethings should tip the scales at around $200,000.

Should retirees be worried about the stock market? ›

The short answer is yes. One of the most daunting aspects of retirement is making sure you have enough money to live on until you die. With looming threats of Social Security cuts, longer life expectancy and rising health care costs, making your money go as far as it can is more important now than ever before.

Should a 70 year old get out of the stock market? ›

Conventional wisdom holds that when you hit your 70s, you should adjust your investment portfolio so it leans heavily toward low-risk bonds and cash accounts and away from higher-risk stocks and mutual funds. That strategy still has merit, according to many financial advisors.

Is $4 million enough to retire? ›

You can probably retire at 55 if you have $4 million in savings. This amount, according to conventional estimates, can reliably produce enough income to pay for a comfortable retirement.

How much money is enough to retire at 40 in us? ›

But it's considerably more so if you want to retire early. One rule of thumb recommends multiplying your desired annual income in retirement by 25 to come up with a savings goal. So, if you want to have $50,000 a year for 25 years, you'd need $1.25 million.

Is $5 million enough to retire at 40? ›

Summary. $5 million will successfully fund your retirement even if you decide to retire at 50, 40 or even 30. If you retire at the average retirement age, $5 million will provide you with over $170,000 annually.

How do people retire with no savings? ›

Many retirees with little to no savings rely solely on Social Security as their main source of income. You can claim Social Security benefits as early as age 62, but your benefit amount will depend on when you start filing for the benefit. You get less than your full benefit if you file before your full retirement age.

Is retiring at 40 realistic? ›

Retiring at 40 may sound like a pipe dream. But it's entirely within reach if you save $1 million while working. The key elements for achieving this feat are sticking to a budget and implementing a comprehensive retirement strategy. But with rising expenses, is $1 million enough?

What happens if you have no money for retirement? ›

If you retire with no money, you'll have to consider ways to create income to pay your living expenses. That might include applying for Social Security retirement benefits, getting a reverse mortgage if you own a home, or starting a side hustle or part-time job to generate a steady paycheck.

Where should I be financially at 40? ›

According to financial experts, you should have roughly three times your yearly salary in savings by the time you reach age 40. If you haven't reached this goal, don't worry, there's still plenty of time to start contributing.

How much money does the average 40 year old have in the bank? ›

Average Savings By Age
Age RangeAccount Balance
Under age 35$11,250
Ages 35-44$27,910
Ages 45-54$48,200
Ages 55-64$57,670
2 more rows

Is 100K in savings by 40 good? ›

“By the time you're 40, you should have three times your annual salary saved. Based on the median income for Americans in this age bracket, $100K between 25-30 years old is pretty good; but you would need to increase your savings to reach your age 40 benchmark.”

How do you retire when the market is down? ›

If you're retiring during a recession, consider withdrawing cash and fixed income opportunities first to allow stocks and other investments that are down to recover. During good years in the market, replenish your cash and fixed income buckets.

What should you do when stocks go down? ›

What to do during a stock market crash
  1. Know what you own — and why. A fear-driven reaction to a temporary slump isn't a good reason to dump an investment. ...
  2. Trust in diversification. ...
  3. Consider buying the dip. ...
  4. Think about getting a second opinion. ...
  5. Focus on the long term. ...
  6. Take advantage where you can.
Feb 16, 2024

Should I move my money out of the stock market? ›

It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.

At what age should you take your money out of the stock market? ›

Experts with the Motley Fool suggest allocating an even higher percentage to stocks until at least age 50 since 50-year-olds still have more than a decade until retirement to ride out any market volatility.

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