What is the stock market forecast for 2023?
Currently, the consensus estimate is for an 8% contraction in the growth rate, followed by a 6% contraction in the second quarter. For calendar-year 2023, the consensus earnings estimate is for a 2% contraction. But that estimate is still coming down, and based on historical patterns, could continue to do so.
A recovery is coming, but no one knows when.
The stock market rallied modestly in the first two and a half months of 2023, but that has not been enough to make up for an abysmal 2022 during which the S&P 500 index plunged by nearly 19%.
This graph shows inflation's growth since the beginning of 2021, reaching a high of 6.6% at the end of September 2022. While various scenarios are possible going forward, we expect inflation to fall to between 2.1% and 3.7% by the end of 2023.
U.S. equities may disappoint in 2023, but patient investors can find potential income and returns in other markets. A grueling bear market, touched off by decades-high inflation and an aggressive Federal Reserve response, made 2022 one of the most challenging years for investment returns in the last half century.
One of Wall Street's most vocal bears expects the stock market to fully recover its losses and trade to record highs in 2024. "This is not the end of the world. This is not 2008. There's not going to be a financial crisis," Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson told CNBC on Tuesday.
- Treasury bills (T-bills): Best for those with a lower risk tolerance. ...
- High-yield savings accounts: Best for those who still want access to their money. ...
- Certificates of deposit (CDs): Best for those who have a specific timeline in mind and won't need access to their money before then.
Since inception in January 1993, the Edward Jones Stock Focus List has provided an average annual total return of 9.6% compared to 9.5% for the S&P 500. Total returns assume reinvestment of dividends, capital appreciation and an annual management fee of 0.30% (prior to 2009 a transaction fee of 1% was assessed).
| Company | Date | Brokerage |
|---|---|---|
| COF Capital One Financial | 1/13/2022 | Edward Jones |
| DTE DTE Energy | 1/13/2022 | Edward Jones |
| ATVI Activision Blizzard | 1/13/2022 | Edward Jones |
| UNH UnitedHealth Group | 1/10/2022 | Edward Jones |
Stocks expected to rise over next year
Through the first quarter of 2024, analysts expect the S&P 500 to climb 8 percent, to 4,289 from 3,970.99 when the survey closed on March 24. That follows a year of optimism in 2022, when each quarterly survey predicted that the market would be higher in a year.
Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss. Cash doesn't grow in value; in fact, inflation erodes its purchasing power over time. Cashing out after the market tanks means that you bought high and are selling low—the world's worst investment strategy.
Who is the risk leader at Edward Jones?
Christopher Ruck - Operations Risk Team Leader - Edward Jones | LinkedIn.
24. Edward Jones ended 2022 with 18,796 financial advisers in 68% of U.S. counties and all Canadian provinces. The financial adviser attrition rate in 2022 was 5.8%, a decrease from 6.6% in 2021. The firm has a goal to hire 1,500 to 1,700 financial advisers this year.
Returns for different portfolio objectives
Our expectations are for fixed-income returns to average 3% to 4.25%. Therefore, if your portfolio objective is balanced growth and income, for example, you can expect a long-term average return between 4.5% and 6.5%.
The initial investment minimum to open an account is $5,000.
