What I Learned from Playing More than a Million Games of Wordle (2024)

What I Learned from Playing More than a Million Games of Wordle (3)

Ok, full disclosure: I didn’t actually play a million games of Wordle, but I wrote a Wordle simulator that did. Why? Because I wanted to learn more about the dynamics of the game and evaluate some of the strategies that people have been discussing online, especially those that discuss the “best words to use at the start of Wordle”. What follows is a description of the approach taken and the what I learned from it.

Note: In this article I will be discussing some words to use as good Wordle guesses. I won’t disguise these words because they have been widely discussed elsewhere, online and in the media. However, I will disguise the novel ‘best’ words found by this analysis so that a reader can read the article without receiving unwelcome or unwanted hints. At the very end of the article I will reveal these new words for those who are interested. It’s not that there is anything revelatory them, but I want to be respectful to those who, while interested in the approach taken here, do not want any hints that might spoil their future Wordle fun.

The simulation of Wordle discussed below approximates a strong Wordle player and for this analysis I simulated more than 1M games for over 400 different (carefully chosen) sets of seed/starter words. The full technical details and findings are discussed below, but a summary of the key results includes the following:

  • On average 95% of target words can be solved within 6 guesses with average game length is approximately 4 rounds.
  • By the time the third guess has been made, a good player will have located about 4 target letters with 2 or 3 in their correct positions.
  • Not all target words are created equally. In simulations, ‘hitch’ and ‘hatch’ failed to be solved 90% of the time, while ‘arose’ and ‘alien’ were always solved and usually within 3 rounds.
  • The seed words you use to begin Wordle do matter. Even for the carefully chosen words tested here, we find that some are materially better than others. Some starter/seed words are able to solve a typical Wordle within 4 rounds >80% of the time, compared with just ~60% of…
What I Learned from Playing More than a Million Games of Wordle (2024)

FAQs

What I Learned from Playing More than a Million Games of Wordle? ›

The data presented suggests that starting with the right set of one or two words is better than relying on a good three-word set, because using a fixed third word means you will be ignoring useful information that can be gleaned from your first two guesses.

How many tries do most people take to solve Wordle? ›

Most people should, on average, get it in at least 4, even on days where it is harder. Especially if you aren't making risky moves, four guesses should supply you with enough information to make a correct guess.

What is a good average score for Wordle? ›

The US is ranked #18 in the world for Wordle, with a national average of 3.92. The American state with the best Wordle average is North Dakota (3.65). The US city with the best Wordle scores is Saint Paul, Minnesota, with an average of 3.51. Probability of guessing correctly in two tries is 6.4785%.

Is Wordle skill or luck? ›

Luck is part of Wordle, so it's always possible to solve faster than the bot. But the bot's reliance on math instead of intuition means in the long run its paths to the answer are hard to top.

How long does the average person spend on Wordle? ›

Key Takeaways. Americans who play Wordle spend an average of 12 minutes a day playing it. Baby boomers are the best Wordle players, with an average win percentage of 81%.

Has anyone ever got Wordle on the first try? ›

More people solve Wordle on their first guess than can be explained by chance. In the list above, we excluded first guesses that were that day's Wordle solution. That's because, about one game in every 250, a reader gets the answer right on the first try.

What is the highest fail rate in Wordle? ›

Parer 48%

What is the longest Wordle streak? ›

While breaking a long streak can be disheartening and frustrating — the current longest streak is 968 days, held by multiple people in Hoquiam, Washington and Willowbrook, Illinois — it's an inevitability.

What is the best Wordle starting word? ›

Here are ten of the best Wordle starting words:
  • Salet.
  • Tares.
  • Rates.
  • Crate.
  • Slant.
  • Least.
  • Prate.
  • Roast.
Nov 10, 2023

What is the best starting word for Wordle? ›

According to WordsRated's analysis, the best starting words for Wordle are CRANE (based on all available solutions) and SAUCY (based on remaining solutions as of Feb, 2024). For Normal mode, SLATE, SALET, ROATE and STARE are known to be some of the best alternative starting words for Wordle.

Does being good at Wordle mean you're smart? ›

But does being good at Wordle mean you're smarter than the average person, or even a fellow puzzler? “No,” said memory and learning researcher Aaron Seitz, a professor of psychology at the University of California, Riverside, who founded the university's Brain Game Center.

What does Wordle do for your brain? ›

“There are many cognitive benefits of playing Wordle. Regular play can enhance brain function by stimulating critical thinking, problem-solving skills and memory retention.”

Does Wordle use plurals? ›

Do Wordles ever have plural nouns? No. There are no plural nouns in the answer list.

What is the number one first word in Wordle? ›

The Absolute Best Word to Start Wordle. Statistically, the best Wordle starting word is CANOE. But, if you want to try other 5 letter words that have similar statistical effectiveness, your choices are ROATE, CRANE, RAISE, and TRACE. Doesn't hurt to give them all a shot at least once, right?

What is the most popular word in Wordle? ›

Top 50 Wordle Words of 2022
  • glyph.
  • avert.
  • axiom.
  • tepid.
  • adore.
  • joust.
  • naive.
  • aorta.

Is adieu a good first word for Wordle? ›

Of the top 30 starting words, ADIEU is the most popular but least efficient. Many, many words have been written about the best opening word for Wordle.

How many guesses does the average person take on Wordle? ›

CountryAverage Tries
United States3.973
Canada3.978
United Kingdom3.991
New Zealand3.997
6 more rows

How often do people solve Wordle in one try? ›

But statistics show that, on average, 0.2 to 0.5 per cent of people guess right on the first try – between five and 12 times more than chance would suggest. Put another way: Of the roughly 2 million daily Wordle players, about 860 people should be guessing the right word on their first try.

What are the odds of solving Wordle in one try? ›

And the first result that popped up from Real Statistics Using Excel (which seemed credible) said: “Since there are 2,315 possible target words in Wordle, the probability that you will guess the target in exactly one try is 1/2315 = 0.000432.

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