The very big risks of the Greek debt crisis (2024)

The very big risks of the Greek debt crisis (1)

Here's how the Greek crisis affects you

Greece is spiraling ever deeper into a financial and political crisis that could end with it becoming the first country to crash out of the euro.

That's not going to spell the end of the European Union -- after all, Greece represents just 2% of the eurozone. Its economy is worth about $200 billion, making it slightly bigger than Alabama, but smaller than Oregon.

So why did President Obama pick up the phone Sunday to urge German Chancellor Angela Merkel to try to find a solution, even at this late hour?

Here are five reasons why Greece's fate matters:

1. Fear of the unknown: Will it be a "Lehman moment"?

Markets around the world took a beating Monday in response to weekend developments that have set Greece on the path to defaulting on its enormous government debt and ultimately abandoning the euro, the so-called 'Grexit' scenario.

That's not because investors are heavily exposed to Greek assets. In fact, most of Greece's debt is now held by other governments and international institutions that are strong enough to cope with a default. Some U.S. hedge funds are invested in Greek banks -- and have already taken hefty losses - but most global banks have relatively little at stake in Greece's financial system.

And while some countries such as Spain and Portugal saw yields on their government bonds rise Monday, the move was modest.

Related: Greece says it won't pay the IMF

It's the fear of sailing into uncharted waters that is driving markets. It's not every day a country goes bust. A Greek bankruptcy would be the largest in history, and test the firewall the European Central Bank and other institutions have been building since 2012.

Some investors will be thinking about 2008 when the collapse of Lehman Brothers marked the peak of the financial crisis. Will Greece be another "Lehman Moment?"

Related: Greece shuts banks in bid to prevent collapse

2. Europe's biggest failure: Will other countries go too?

Greek and European officials are now trading accusations of blackmail, humiliation, betrayal and lying. So much for the commitment to build an "ever-closer union" enshrined in the European Union's founding Treaty of Rome in 1957.

"In one night, Europe suffered a major blow," said European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Monday.

In practical terms, a permanent split would trash Europe's claims that the euro is irreversible. "It's not an empty word now," said Mario Draghi in 2012 when he promised the European Central Bank would do "whatever it takes" to preserve the euro.

It's hard to imagine any other country choosing to follow Greece into the economic abyss, but some weaker eurozone economies may pay the price in permanently higher borrowing costs if a 'Grexit' materializes, despite the ECB's best efforts.

Related: Brain drain: Greece's future is walking away

3. More pain for the Greeks

Greece has already suffered a huge amount of pain. The economy has shrunk by 25%, unemployment has rocketed to record levels, and one in two young people are without work.

Wages and pensions have been cut. Shops are shuttered.

But it could get a whole lot worse before it gets better if Greece leaves the euro. A new drachma would be worth much less than a euro -- some analysts expect a devaluation of 50% -- meaning the cost of imports would rocket, sending inflation soaring.

The social catastrophe could be much worse than that seen in the early years of Greece's bailout programs.

Related: Will the crisis kill Greece's summer tourism season?

4. Chaos in the region

The risk of a failing state on in southeastern Europe is deeply troubling for many governments.

Greece is on the front line in Europe's struggle to deal with a flow of refugees across the Mediterranean. The migrants are fleeing war in Syria, Libya and elsewhere, and they're arriving in their thousands in southern Europe. About 60,000 have landed in Greece so far this year, placing even greater strain on the country.

5. The risk of losing Greece to Russia

Greece has been a member of NATO since 1952, but also has commercial, cultural and religious ties with Russia.

Since his election in January, the left-wing government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has sought to develop that relationship, visiting President Vladimir Putin and signing a deal to open a Russian gas pipeline across Greece next year.

America and Europe are still trying to exert pressure on Putin over the Ukraine crisis, and won't welcome warmer ties between Moscow and Athens.

Former U.S. national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski warned earlier this year that Greece could slow NATO's ability to respond to Russian aggression.

The very big risks of the Greek debt crisis (3)

Greece: small economy, big impact

CNNMoney (London ) First published June 29, 2015: 11:29 AM ET

The very big risks of the Greek debt crisis (2024)

FAQs

What was the effect of the Greek debt crisis? ›

In addition, to become more competitive, Greek wages fell nearly 20% from mid-2010 to 2014, a form of deflation. This significantly reduced income and GDP, resulting in a severe recession, decline in tax receipts and a significant rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio. Unemployment reached nearly 25%, from below 10% in 2003.

What was one of the principle reasons the Greek debt crisis was so serious? ›

The Greek debt crisis is due to the government's fiscal policies that included too much spending. Greece's financial situation was sound when it entered the EU in the early 1980s, but deteriorated substantially over the next thirty years.

Who does Greece owe money to? ›

In total, Greece now owes the EU and IMF roughly 290 billion euros ($330 billion), part of a public debt that has climbed to 180 percent of GDP. To finance this debt, Athens commits to running a budget surplus through 2060, accepts continued EU financial supervision, and imposes additional austerity measures.

What lessons should be learned from the Greek debt crisis? ›

Too much debt is bad for everyone

The Greek crisis highlighted the importance of understanding country-level risks, in this case in the form of debts. At the end of the day, Greece fell into trouble because it had more debts than it could pay.

What were the effects of the debt crisis? ›

What Are the Effects of a Debt Crisis? A debt crisis can lead to steep losses for banks, both domestic and international, potentially undermining the stability of financial systems in both the crisis-hit country and others. This can affect economic growth and create turmoil in global financial markets.

What economic issues and problems does Greece face? ›

The banking system has remained resilient with improving balance sheets. However, the economy is facing macro-financial challenges amid the significant monetary policy tightening, persistent core inflation, and rising real estate prices.

What were the main causes of the debt crisis? ›

As investor confidence deteriorates further over time, pushing the cost of borrowing to higher levels, the government may find it more and more difficult to roll over its existing debt and may eventually default and enter into a debt crisis. Many countries have experienced debt crises.

Is the Greek debt crisis over? ›

There are still inherent risks in the Greek economy that make it vulnerable to potential downgrades in the near future. Greece still has high government debt that needs to be addressed. There are also policy risks as the country moves towards more market-based financing and the banking sector remains fragile.

How long did the Greek debt crisis last? ›

The Greek government-debt crisis began in 2009 and, as of November 2017, was still ongoing. During this period, many changes had occurred in Greece.

Is Greece in debt today? ›

FINANCES REVIVE

Since Greece emerged from the bailout in 2018 it has revived its banking system and has relied solely on debt markets for its borrowing needs. In 2022, it paid off the IMF two years ahead of schedule.

How much debt is Greece currently in? ›

The Hellenic Statistical Authority provides Government Debt in EUR and Nominal GDP in EUR, based on ESA 2010. Government Debt prior to Q1 2012 is based on ESA 1995. In the latest reports, Greece National Government Debt reached 391.0 USD bn in Jun 2023. The country's Nominal GDP reached 57.9 USD bn in Mar 2023.

What happened when Greece went broke? ›

Greece's economy collapsed. Its economic output declined by 25 percent from the 2010 level. Wages and pensions fell. Unemployment reached 27 percent.

Who bailed out Greece? ›

The euro zone and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) together lent Greece more than 260 billion euros during its decade-long debt crisis which began in late 2009, in exchange for tough austerity measures. The country's third bailout expired in 2018.

How many times has Greece defaulted? ›

Greece has defaulted on its external sovereign debt obligations at least five previous times in the modern era (1826, 1843, 1860, 1894 and 1932). The first episode occurred in the early days of that country's war of independence, and the last default was during the Great Depression in the early 1930s.

Which countries bailed out Greece? ›

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Council (EC), and European Central Bank (ECB) – a group the media labeled the Troika – had bailed out Greece, but imposed extremely strict austerity in return.

How did Greece recover from the financial crisis? ›

The country's prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, a business-friendly conservative politician, was re-elected by a landslide in June after being credited with spurring a recovery by reducing taxes and debt. The government cut red tape for businesses and raised the minimum wage.

What is the reason having a large national debt harmed Greece? ›

This high debt burden resulted from a contracting Greek economy and falling tax revenues; the small nation also suffered from a large tax evasion problem. At the same time, the banking system was in a state of major turmoil.

How does Greek history still affect the country today? ›

The principles behind the ancient Greeks' democratic system of government are still in use today. The United States and many other countries throughout the modern world have adopted democratic governments to give a voice to their people. Democracy provides citizens the opportunity to elect officials to represent them.

Did Greece recover from financial crisis? ›

The rebound in post-COVID activity has enabled the Greek government to combine economic growth and fiscal consolidation. Indeed, the country has weathered the successive shocks in Europe in recent years very well.

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