A screen displays the Dow Jones Industrial Average after the closing bell on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Dec. 13, 2023.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high above 37,000 on Wednesday, hitting a new 1,000-point milestone for the first time since Nov. 2, 2021, or more than 700 days. History suggests the next milestone will come sooner.
The Dow, a price-weighted average of 30 stocks that are often seen as the "blue chip" names of the U.S. economy, was first created in 1896 — with only 12 stocks — and first hit the 1,000-point milestone in 1972.
According to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices, which manages the average, the Dow has hit a new 1,000-point mark every 518 days on average since then.
Dow milestones over time
| Level | Date | Days Between 1K levels |
|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 11/14/1972 | -- |
| 2000 | 1/8/1987 | 5168 |
| 3000 | 4/17/1991 | 1560 |
| 4000 | 2/23/1995 | 1408 |
| 5000 | 11/21/1995 | 271 |
| 6000 | 10/14/1996 | 328 |
| 7000 | 2/13/1997 | 122 |
| 8000 | 7/16/1997 | 153 |
| 9000 | 4/6/1998 | 264 |
| 10000 | 3/29/1999 | 357 |
| 11000 | 5/3/1999 | 35 |
| 12000 | 10/19/2006 | 2726 |
| 13000 | 4/25/2007 | 188 |
| 14000 | 7/19/2007 | 85 |
| 15000 | 5/7/2013 | 2119 |
| 16000 | 11/21/2013 | 198 |
| 17000 | 7/3/2014 | 224 |
| 18000 | 12/23/2014 | 173 |
| 19000 | 11/22/2016 | 700 |
| 20000 | 1/25/2017 | 64 |
| 21000 | 3/1/2017 | 35 |
| 22000 | 8/2/2017 | 154 |
| 23000 | 10/18/2017 | 77 |
| 24000 | 11/30/2017 | 43 |
| 25000 | 1/4/2018 | 35 |
| 26000 | 1/17/2018 | 13 |
| 27000 | 7/11/2019 | 540 |
| 28000 | 11/15/2019 | 127 |
| 29000 | 1/15/2020 | 61 |
| 30000 | 11/24/2020 | 314 |
| 31000 | 1/7/2021 | 44 |
| 32000 | 3/10/2021 | 62 |
| 33000 | 3/17/2021 | 7 |
| 34000 | 4/15/2021 | 29 |
| 35000 | 7/23/2021 | 99 |
| 36000 | 11/2/2021 | 102 |
| 37000 | 12/13/2023 | 771 |
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices; CNBC
The gap between milestones has gotten smaller over time, which makes sense because the percentage change between each increment shrinks as the index level climbs.
Since the Dow hit the 20,000 mark in January 2017, it has crossed the next round-number threshold every 143 days on average. On five occasions over that time, the Dow has reached the next milestone within 40 days.
This year, the Dow hit a new record high before the Nasdaq Composite or the S&P 500 — considered a better yardstick for the U.S. stock market by institutional investors because of its diversity and market cap weighting — but the rally has not been limited to the Dow. In fact, the Dow's percentage gain in 2023 trails far behind both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.
Bill Baruch, president at Blue Line Futures, said on "Worldwide Exchange" on Thursday that futures contracts for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 are also flirting with record highs.
"This could really feed on itself. I don't see a reason for the market to fall off at the moment. There's been post-Fed reactions that have reversed … but this looks pretty good here, and the Christmas rally may have just begun," Baruch said.
Wednesday's record-setting finish came after the Federal Reserve signaled that it expected to cut interest rates three times in 2024. The gap between new milestones for the Dow was caused in part by the Fed's rate-hiking cycle, which began in March 2022 and weighed on the stock market.
