Techniques to Pick Winning Stocks - Oddball Wealth (2024)

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Picking strong companies to buy shares of stock can seem difficult especially with the current market being as inflated as it is. Finding individual stocks to buy at a discount is possible by sticking to the fundamentals. This means finding well-established companies that have been around for many years with good track records of past success.

Many people become emotional investors and buy whatever the media is selling them. They hear in the news and media a stock is taking off, so they decide to buy shares in that company and then the stock’s market value drops. Emotional investors often buy high and sell low. Here I’ll explain some quick tips on how to pick stocks by looking at their intrinsic value and by sticking to the fundamentals.

10-Year History of a Company

1. Book Value Per Share

The book value of a common share of stockis what, you, the shareholder would be paid after the company paid off all their debts and liquidated any of their assets. Examining a stock’s book value per share can be helpful in finding out whether or not we should buy the stock.

What I do is look at the book value per share of a stock from the past 10 years leading up to the present. As I do this I look to see if the book value increases or decreases and if there were any dramatic drops in the book value during those years. If a share’s book value decreased in many of the years that’s a red flag or any large drops in the book value in select years could be a sign the company is not stable. If a stock’s book value has steadily increased each year this is a good sign and what we’re looking for! Generally I look to see if the book value per share has remained steady or consistent throughout those ten years to determine if the company is stable.

Also, determine how much the book value amount changed each year from the preceding year. Then add up the change in value for each of the 10 years to find the total increase in book value per share for the 10-year period.

2. Dividends

Look to see a trend in the 10-year dividend history. A good company would be one whose dividend steadily increased throughout the 10-year period. It’s uncommon of a good company and a bad sign if a stock’s dividend decreased during that 10-year period and should be investigated.

3. Earnings Per Share (EPS)

While examining a stocks 10-year history, also check the EPS. The EPS should have remained consistent or increased during the stock’s 10-years. If the EPS decreased consistently during the 10-years that’s another red flag.

When looking at the 10-year data on a company’s Book Value per Share, Dividends, and Earnings per Share what we’re doing is determining if that company stable. Look for red flags by examining if any of those values have noticeably large declines or jump up and down during the 10-year period.

These values can be found by going to www.morningstar.com and clicking on the “stocks” tab and the top of the page and typing the company’s stock ticker symbol into the “quote” search bar. From there click on the “Key Ratios” tab and it’ll bring up the key ratio page with data and ratios from the past 10-years, if you scroll down that page you’ll find the book value per share, dividends, and earnings per share along with other ratios.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

The debt-to-equity ratio is calculated by taking a company’s Total Liabilities Divided by Shareholders Equity. These figures can be found in the company’s balance sheet. You can either look at the annual balance sheet or the quarterly balance sheet. I like to calculate the annual and quarterly debt-to-equity ratio to determine their debt-to-equity in the last year and their quarterly debt-to-equity lets me know how they’re doing currently. This is an important ratio in determining how much debt a company has compared to their equity.

A simple example, if XYZ Company had:

  • Total Liabilities: $50,000
  • Shareholder’s Equity: $100,000
  • We would then take $50,000 / $100,000 = 0.5
  • XYZ’s Debt-to-Equity Ratio is 0.5

In the XYZ example, the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.5 means that XYZ Company has half as much debt financing their business as there is shareholder equity. The lower the ratio the better.

After you have found or calculated the debt-to-equity ratio, you want to compare that ratio to other companies’ debt-to-equity ratio in the same industry, or in other words, find the “industry average”. By comparing the debt-to-equity in the same industry, you can decide if the stock you’re looking at buying’s debt-to-equity is high or low. If you determined a company’s debt-to-equity ratio is high for its industry it’s probably a stock you want to stay away from.

Boom! We just went over some quick and simple tips on valuing a stock! Another great ratio to help you determine the value of company and whether to buy a stock, is the Current Ratio which I’ll go over in another article. If you have any questions on how to find a company’s 10-year summary on Book Value per Share, Dividends, and Earnings per Share; or on how to find or calculate the Debt-to-Equity Ratio feel free to email me. My contact information can be found by clicking on the “About the Author” tab at the top of the home page.

Thanks for Reading!

Techniques to Pick Winning Stocks - Oddball Wealth (2024)

FAQs

What are the best stock picking strategies? ›

Key steps should be followed to screen the universe of all stocks down to just those that meet your criteria for investment.
  • Find an Investing Theme.
  • Analyze Potential Investments with Statistics.
  • Construct a Stock Screen.
  • Narrow the Output and Perform Deep Analysis.
  • The Bottom Line.

What is the most common winning investment strategy? ›

Investment Strategy #1: Value Investing

They buy stocks that appear to be trading for less than what they're really worth. They're willing to bet that these stocks are being underestimated by the stock market and will bounce back over the long run. As those stocks grow in value, they turn a profit for the investor.

What is the most successful investment strategy? ›

Buy and hold

A buy-and-hold strategy is a classic that's proven itself over and over. With this strategy you do exactly what the name suggests: you buy an investment and then hold it indefinitely. Ideally, you'll never sell the investment, but you should look to own it for at least three to five years.

How do you pick high performing stocks? ›

You can use several other metrics when searching for value stocks, though a simple approach would be to consider those with:
  1. An above-average dividend yield (but not too high)
  2. Low P/E ratio.
  3. A price that is less than the company's book value.

What is the simplest most profitable trading strategy? ›

One of the simplest and most widely known fundamental strategies is value investing. This strategy involves identifying undervalued assets based on their intrinsic value and holding onto them until the market recognizes their true worth.

How do you pick stocks before they explode? ›

Here are seven ways to identify and profit from potential breakout stocks.
  1. Look for companies with a competitive advantage. ...
  2. Watch for key market trends. ...
  3. Monitor volume and price. ...
  4. Identify companies with strong fundamentals. ...
  5. Track a stock's relative strength. ...
  6. Keep an eye out for catalysts. ...
  7. Exit at your target price.
Mar 5, 2024

What is Warren Buffett's number 1 rule? ›

"The first rule of an investment is don't lose [money]. And the second rule of an investment is don't forget the first rule. And that's all the rules there are." This quote from legendary billionaire investor Warren Buffett has become one of his most well-known aphorisms.

How does Warren Buffett pick stocks? ›

Key Takeaways

In picking stocks, Warren Buffett looks for companies that have provided a good return on equity over many years, particularly when compared to rival companies in the same industry. Buffett also reviews a company's profit margins to ensure they are healthy and growing.

What is the Buffett method of valuation? ›

Buffett uses the average rate of return on equity and average retention ratio (1 - average payout ratio) to calculate the sustainable growth rate [ ROE * ( 1 - payout ratio)]. The sustainable growth rate is used to calculate the book value per share in year 10 [BVPS ((1 + sustainable growth rate )^10)].

What is the number 1 rule investing? ›

Warren Buffett once said, “The first rule of an investment is don't lose [money]. And the second rule of an investment is don't forget the first rule.

What are Warren Buffett's 5 rules of investing? ›

Here's Buffett's take on the five basic rules of investing.
  • Never lose money. ...
  • Never invest in businesses you cannot understand. ...
  • Our favorite holding period is forever. ...
  • Never invest with borrowed money. ...
  • Be fearful when others are greedy.
Jan 11, 2023

What are two strategies the rich use to invest? ›

  • They put their money into homes. Owning a home (or two) is where many wealthy people have their money tied up. ...
  • They buy stocks. The second-most popular place where wealthy people put their money is into stocks. ...
  • They own commercial property.
Nov 12, 2023

How do you pick up undervalued stocks? ›

Eight ways to spot undervalued stocks
  1. Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E)
  2. Debt-equity ratio (D/E)
  3. Return on equity (ROE)
  4. Earnings yield.
  5. Dividend yield.
  6. Current ratio.
  7. Price-earnings to growth ratio (PEG)
  8. Price-to-book ratio (P/B)

How do you analyze stocks for beginners? ›

There are a few aspects to consider when you wish to determine whether a share is worth investing in. The company's fundamentals: Research the company's performance in the last five years, including figures like earnings per share, price to book ratio, price to earnings ratio, dividend, return on equity, etc.

Which investing approach do stock pickers favor? ›

Stock pickers favor the bottom-up approach. This approach involves analyzing individual stocks and s...

How do traders pick stocks? ›

There are several techniques to determine stock depth and liquidity. They are: trading volume, bid-ask spreads, order books, time and sales, and market depth. Trading Volume: Day traders use the amounts of shares traded to determine a stock's depth and liquidity.

What is the safest strategy in the stock market? ›

The safest option strategy is one that involves limited risk, such as buying protective puts or employing conservative covered call writing. Selling cash-secured puts stands as the most secure strategy in options trading, offering a clear risk profile and prospects for income while keeping overall risk to a minimum.

Can you beat the market picking stocks? ›

Even stock pros rarely beat the market

Failing to beat the market isn't specific to retail investors, though. A 2020 study conducted by S&P Dow Jones Indices compared actively managed funds to the performance of the S&P 500, finding that 89% of fund managers failed to beat the benchmark index.

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