Retracement in Bank Stocks Provides Buying Opportunity (2024)

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A 2-basis-point rise in NIMs would improve earnings by 1.9% in 2022

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Tim Smith

Retracement in Bank Stocks Provides Buying Opportunity (1)

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Tim Smith has 20+ years ofexperience in the financial services industry, both as a writer and as a trader.

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Published November 13, 2020

While stocks rallied sharply after Pfizer Inc. (PFE) announced that its COVID-19 vaccine was 90% effective, banking names have outperformed the broader market by about 8% over the past week as the news pushed up bond yields amid hopes of a quicker economic recovery. Rising bond yields benefit banks because it increases the margin between what they pay depositors and receive from borrowers.

Key Takeaways

  • Bank stocks have outperformed the broader market over the past week because of rising bond yields.
  • Look for the bullish momentum to continue in Bank of America Corporation (BAC) shares given the breakout above a downtrend line occurring on above-average volume.
  • A golden cross on the U.S. Bancorp (USB) chart indicates the start of a new uptrend.

According to JPMorgan banking analyst Vivek Juneja, a rise of 2 basis points in net interest margins (NIMs) would improve bank earnings per share by 1.9% in 2022, per Barron's. However, traders should keep in mind that the Federal Reserve has pledged to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future and that the sector faces the prospect of heightened regulation under a Biden administration.

Those who follow banking stocks should keep a close eye on the two industry heavyweights outlined below that are pulling back toward major chart support. Let's take a more detailed look at each name and use technical analysis to identify high-probability entry points.

Bank of America Corporation (BAC)

The Charlotte, North Carolina-based financial giant reported a 16% slump in third quarter profit to $4.9 billion, or 51 cents per share, while revenues of $20.45 billion fell short of analysts' forecast of $20.8 billion. Despite the bank's net interest income (NII) falling by 17% in the period, CEO Brian Moynihan has said that the key figure will likely bottom in the third quarter. Last month, Juneja raised JPMorgan's price target on Bank of America to $27.50 from $26 and kept the firm's "Overweight" rating on the stock. Juneja argues that better-than-expected credit quality should offset weakness in net interest income. As of Nov. 13, 2020, Bank of America stock has a market capitalization of $230.9 billion and is trading 8.45% higher over the past week. Year to date, the shares have fallen 23%. Investors also bank a 2.63% dividend yield.

Since Monday's breakout gap above a downtrend line stretching back to the pre-COVID high and close above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), the shares have retraced as traders book quick profits. However, look for the bullish momentum to continue given the move higher occurred on above-average volume. Those who want to buy the stock should look for entries around $25, where price action has flipped these same indicators from resistance into support.

Retracement in Bank Stocks Provides Buying Opportunity (2)

Volume is the amount of an asset or security that changes hands over some period of time, often over the course of a day.

U.S. Bancorp (USB)

The nation's seventh largest bank by assets disclosed a third quarter profit of $1.58 billion, or 99 cents per share, topping Wall Street expectations of 91 cents per share as the company's fee-based business helped offset lower NII and rising expenses related to the pandemic. Although NII of $3.23 billion declined slightly from the year-ago period, the metric came in ahead of analysts' forecast of $3.2 billion. Moreover, total deposits and loans grew by 15.9% and 6.4% year over year, respectively. Wall Street has a 12-month consensus price target on the company at $44.76, representing 4.6% upside potential to Thursday's $42.81 close. U.S. Bancorp stock offers an enticing 3.84% dividend yield and is trading up nearly 6% over the past week as of Nov. 13, 2020. Since the start of the year, the shares have declined 25.67%.

After reaching an eight-month high earlier this week, the share price has retreated slightly in recent trading sessions. Still, a move of the 50-day SMA back above the 200-day SMA Thursday – known by technical analysts as a golden cross – indicates the start of a new uptrend. Therefore, active traders should view further pullbacks as a buying opportunity. Look for an entry point at the $41 level, where price finds crucial support from a multi-month downtrend line.

During a pullback, price drops are relatively short in duration - for example, a few consecutive sessions – before the uptrend resumes.

Disclosure: The author held no positions in the aforementioned securities at the time of publication.

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Retracement in Bank Stocks Provides Buying Opportunity (2024)

FAQs

What is a retracement in stocks? ›

A retracement refers to the temporary reversal of an overarching trend in a stock's price. Distinct from a reversal, retracements are short-term periods of movement against a trend, followed by a return to the previous trend.

What is the rule of retracement? ›

For instance, you could expect that retracements in a steeply rising uptrend would be brief and wouldn't "retrace" a significant portion of the earlier rise. The general rule is that a strong uptrend requires retracements of only one-third of the previous uptrend. The same is true for downtrends.

Why does retracement happen? ›

Definition of Retracement: Retracements are defined as temporary price reversals that occur within a larger trend. They are often caused by profit-taking, market sentiment, or technical factors such as Fibonacci levels, moving averages, or support and resistance levels.

What is the difference between breakout and retracement? ›

Breakout occurring on higher volumes than usual means the price is more likely to trend in the direction of the breakout. If you do not see good volume numbers, the price will not likely trend toward the breakout. Retracements are temporary reversals in security prices.

How does retracement work? ›

Fibonacci retracement levels—stemming from the Fibonacci sequence—are horizontal lines that indicate where support and resistance are likely to occur. Each level is associated with a percentage. The percentage is how much of a prior move the price has retraced.

What is an example of a retracement? ›

For example, if you using a Fibonacci retracement tool to measure the retracement of an upward move from 10 to 15, you might find the tool showing you $13.45 as the first retracement level. That's because a 23% retracement would be found by multiplying the difference: $5.00 x . 23 = $1.15.

What does 100% retracement mean? ›

0% is considered to be the start of the retracement, while 100% is a complete reversal to the original price before the move. Horizontal lines are drawn in the chart for these price levels to provide support and resistance levels. Common levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%.

How do you predict retracement? ›

As per the Fibonacci retracement theory, after the upmove one can anticipate a correction in the stock to last up to the Fibonacci ratios. For example, the first level up to which the stock can correct could be 23.6%. If this stock continues to correct further, the trader can watch out for the 38.2% and 61.8% levels.

What is the 50 retracement strategy? ›

Trading Rules - 50% Retracement Swing Trade

Look for a bullish price thrust that clears above the previous swing high with strong momentum. Mark out a “retracement zone” between 50% and 61.8% of the price thrust. After price falls down to the retracement zone, buy above any bullish bar.

What is a valid retracement? ›

Retracements are a small movement away from the overall direction of a price. They are temporary in nature and do not reflect a wider market trend. While, over a certain period of time, the value of an asset might rise or fall overall, it very rarely does so consistently.

Is a retracement the same as a consolidation? ›

Essentially, a consolidation is when the market decides whether it is going to continue in the same direction or turn in the opposite direction (remember that a move in the opposite direction is a retracement).

How do you read retracement? ›

Retracements are based on the prior move. A bounce is expected to retrace a portion of the prior decline, while a correction is expected to retrace a portion of the prior advance. Once a pullback starts, chartists can identify specific Fibonacci retracement levels for monitoring.

What is a bullish retracement? ›

If the retracements are based on a bullish movement, the retracements should indicate potential support levels where a downtrend will reverse bullishly. If the retracements are based on a bearish movement, the retracements should indicate potential resistance levels where a rebound will be reversed bearishly.

What is the opposite of retracement? ›

In contrast to retracements, meaning a temporary blip against the current trend, reversals signify a fundamental change in the direction of a trend. A reversal occurs when the price movement shifts so significantly that it alters the established structure, indicating a change in sentiment.

Is retracement same as pullback? ›

A pullback is a temporary pause or dip in an asset's overall trend. The term is sometimes used interchangeably with 'retracement' or 'consolidation'. However, a pullback should not be confused with a reversal, which is a more permanent move against the prevailing trend.

What does 50% retracement mean? ›

It states that if an asset drops after a price increase, it will lose between 50% and 67% of recent price gains before rebounding. Technical analysts use the fifty percent principle to identify a good entry point into a particular stock and ensure that there support levels to prevent further drops.

Is a retracement the same as a pullback? ›

In the realm of financial markets, a retracement, also called a pullback, refers to a temporary turnaround in the direction of an asset's price that goes against the prevailing trend. For example, in an uptrend, a retracement might see the asset falling slightly before it resumes its upward trajectory.

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