Nifty seen at 50k by 2030, may touch 21,400 next year. Read here (2024)

On Monday, Nifty 50 surged by 151.45 points or 0.83% to end at 18,420.45. Currently, markets condition are volatile with major central banks in Europe and the US maintaining their hawkish stance as they expect more aggressive rate hikes to tame inflationary pressure -- indicating a slowdown in global economic growth prospectus which has also led to recession fears in major economies. However, the Nifty 50 and Sensex snapped a 2-days losing streak on Monday despite weak global cues.

On December 1st this year, the Nifty 50 touched a lifetime high of 18,887.60. Year-to-date, the Nifty 50 has jumped by at least 4.6%.

In its technical outlook report dated December 19, ICICI Direct stated that the Nifty 50 target for 2023 is placed at 21,400 while strong support is placed at 16200 levels. But that's not all, the brokerage sees Nifty 50 touching the 50,000 mark by 2030-end.

Nifty target at 21,400 for 2023:

ICICI Direct's 2023 target is supported by the following:

1. Seasonality: Over the past four decades, third-year returns of each decade have been positive with a median of 18%. CY22 projection based on this cycle of 18900 has been achieved, adding credence to the cycle study. A similar target from a CMP of 18420 projects target of 21720. Additionally, 70% of the time a pre-election year has generated positive returns.

2. Conventional chart work: Breakout from 13-month range (18300-15200) projecting 21400

3. Long-term breadth thrust: Over the past two decades, on eight out of 10 occasions, 60% of Nifty 500 constituents, rising above 200 days moving average (DMA) has triggered an average of 25% returns in the Nifty in the subsequent 12 months.

Further, the brokerage highlighted that the relative outperformance of the midcap universe is in the mid-cycle of a multi-year bull phase. It believes midcap stocks have the potential to outperform large-caps. The brokerage added, "We expect this outperformance to get further amplified over the next couple of years, and gain around 20% in CY23."

Among the sectors that will be in focus during 2023 are --- BFSI, Auto, PSU, Capital Goods & Infra, and Telecom while IT provides favourable risk-reward.

Nifty 50 at 50,000 mark by 2023:

According to ICICI Direct's report, Indian equities are likely to display the same rhythm that the US and Nikkei did in 1990-2000 and 1980-1990, respectively, i.e. delivering a decadal move of 5x on headline indices.

It added, "Our prognosis of various Technical studies leads us to the conclusion that the Nifty is poised to reach towards 50000 by CY30. More so, the performance of 2021 and 2022 further adds strength to our argument given that Nifty is mimicking our forecast trajectory. What is more exciting is that we are entering 2023, which, as per decadal studies, has turned out to be a strong year."

However, the brokerage believes that such long-term trends often have to navigate through bouts of volatility. For instance, they had expected Nifty at around the 19,000 mark by 2022 in their CY18 outlook report. ICICI Direct report said, "Nifty achieved our target despite Covid-related volatility."

Explaining the decadal cycle, ICICI Direct revealed that since its inception in 1979, the Sensex gained an average of 4x in each decade. From the CY20 close of 13981 (Nifty) similar projection leads to ~56,000.

Further, explaining in detail, ICICI Direct's report said the study helps investors to form a larger perspective and stay the course during times of turbulence. Despite a host of negativity around geopolitical worries along with higher inflation and interest rates, the Nifty stayed the course by achieving its projected target of 18900 for CY22. It added, the projection for the current decade (CY21-30) based on the CY20 close (Nifty:13982) works out to around 55,000.

ICICI Direct's report also said it is worth noting that such returns do not come in a linear fashion and corrections of around 20% along the way have always been a buying opportunity.

A decade ago, in December 2012, the Nifty 50 ranged between 5,800 to 5,900 levels. Taking into consideration the new lifetime high of 18,887.60 which was recorded on December 1, 2022, the benchmark has skyrocketed by a huge 13,017 or 222% in a decade (from the 5,870.95 level on December 03, 2012). But taking into consideration December 19, 2022 level, still Nifty 50 has witnessed robust growth of 12,491 or 211% from the 5,929.60 level on December 19, 2012.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Published: 19 Dec 2022, 09:14 PM IST