Markets fall as investors worry about low economic growth and stubborn inflation rates | CNN Business (2024)

Markets fall as investors worry about low economic growth and stubborn inflation rates | CNN Business (1)

The latest GDP report showed that US economic growth slowed to 1.6% in the first quarter of the year, a much weaker pace than expected.

New York CNN

US stocks closed lower Thursday after the latest GDP report showed that US economic growth slowed to 1.6% in the first quarter of the year, a much weaker pace than expected.

The Dow fell by 375 points, or 1%; the S&P 500 was down 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite slid by 0.6%, as investors projected a longer wait for the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

“This report was the worst of both worlds: economic growth is slowing and inflationary pressures are persisting,” wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, in a note Thursday morning.

Economic growth appears to be floating back down to earth after notching a very strong second half of 2023. GDP grew by 4.9% and 3.4% in the third and fourth quarters of last year.

At the same time, Thursday’s data showed that inflation accelerated in the first three months of the year: The annualized GDP chain price, which measures how much prices have gone up or down in the economy, helping to track inflation, jumped from 1.6% up to 3.1%.

“The Fed wants to see inflation start coming down in a persistent manner, but the market wants to see economic growth and corporate profits increasing, so if neither are headed in the right direction then that’s going to be bad news for markets,” wrote Zaccarelli.

Those sticky inflation rates have pushed investors to slash their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Fed. They’re now anticipating just one cut this year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That’s down from an expectation for six at the beginning of the year.

It’s also brought back fears of stagflation — when the economy stops growing but inflation persists.

In a talk at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned investors about a potential period of stagflation.

“Stagflation has the negative effect of no growth and inflation. That hurts profits and consumers and jobs. And yes, I think there’s a chance that could happen again,” he said. “I worry that it looks more like the 1970s than we’ve seen before.”

Between 1966 and 1981, a period encompassing much of the stagflation era, investors in the US stock market lost more than 35% after adjusting for inflation, according to analysis by Ben Carlson at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

Tech stocks also tumbled Thursday as investors worried that a slowing economy could hurt their growth prospects, in an already tense earnings season.

Shares of Meta closed 10.5% lower. Microsoft fell by 2.5% and shares of Amazon were down 1.7%.

Markets fall as investors worry about low economic growth and stubborn inflation rates | CNN Business (2024)

FAQs

What is the relationship between inflation rate and economic growth? ›

An increase in the rate of economic growth means more goods for money to “chase,” which puts downward pressure on the inflation rate. Assume, for illustrative purposes, that the money supply grows at 6 percent a year and velocity is constant. Then, if annual economic growth is 3 percent, inflation must be 3 percent.

How does inflation affect the market? ›

Why is Inflation Bad for Stocks? Rising prices of goods and services injects uncertainty into the markets. During periods of rising inflation, corporations profit and growth margins may be hit, affecting investor confidence which in turn affects their willingness to take on risk by holding stocks.

What is the stagflation of the stock market? ›

Stagflation refers to slowing economic growth combined with high inflation, which scarred the U.S. economy for much of the 1970s. Stock-market investors have grown concerned that the economy could sink into a similar dilemma since the March consumer-price index report came in hotter than expected.

What is stagflation in the US? ›

Stagflation is an economic scenario characterised by stagnating economic activity and high unemployment, while inflation is high and sustained over time. This can lead to a situation in which the economy does not grow and people lose the necessary purchasing power to cope with inflation.

What happens if economic growth is too low? ›

Negative growth rates and economic contraction are also marked by a decrease in real income, higher unemployment, lower levels of industrial production, and a decline in wholesale or retail sales.

What happens to economic growth when inflation increases? ›

Inflation is measured by the consumer price index (CPI), and at low rates, it keeps the economy healthy. But when the rate of inflation rises rapidly, it can result in lower purchasing power, higher interest rates, slower economic growth and other negative economic effects.

Is stagflation good or bad? ›

Stagflation is a combination of three negatives: slower economic growth, higher unemployment, and higher prices. This is a combination that isn't supposed to occur, in the logic of economics. Prices shouldn't go up when people have less money to spend.

What is stagflation vs. inflation? ›

Key Takeaways

Inflation is the rate of increase in the overall price level of goods and services in an economy. Stagflation describes a combination of high inflation and economic stagnation as reflected by a slow growth rate and high unemployment.

What is stagflation quizlet? ›

Stagflation is a situation of both high inflation and high unemployment; occurs when output is falling at the same time that prices are rising.

How long did 1970s stagflation last? ›

Economists have shown that stagflation was prevalent among seven major market economies from 1973 to 1982.

Is the US economy good right now? ›

Is the U.S. economy growing? The U.S. economy has shown steady growth since it dropped to unprecedented levels during the second quarter of 2020 due to the pandemic — and then rebounded almost as quickly.

How to survive stagflation? ›

When stagflation occurs, don't panic, sell your stocks and bonds and invest in rare art, gold, or other unusual commodities. Stagflation is not a good reason to completely abandon a sound investment strategy.

What is the relationship between the economic cycle and inflation? ›

During a contraction

As consumers demand less, businesses produce less output. Some businesses may lower their prices or offer discounts to increase sales. This leads to lower inflation or deflation.

What is the economic growth theory of inflation? ›

According to this theory, the individuals in the future will receive the return on investment in the form of money. Thus, investment and real money balances will be reduced by inflation. Consequently, inflation will negatively affect economic growth.

What is the relationship between prices and inflation in a growing economy? ›

In a flourishing economy, price and inflation are interconnected, with economic growth typically leading to a marginal increase in prices, hence a slight inflationary effect. Aggregate supply and demand need to balance effectively to avoid deflation.

Is economic growth adjusted for inflation? ›

Nominal GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced in a given time period, usually quarterly or annually. Real GDP is nominal GDP adjusted for inflation. Real GDP is used to measure the actual growth of production without any distorting effects from inflation.

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