It's That Time Of Year When Traders Talk About The S&P 5-Day Rule (2024)

There are a lot of "rules" in the stock market that don't seem to die because more often than not, they work.

Take for instance the S&P 5-day rule, which comes from the Stock Market Almanac. According to the rule, the S&P 500 ends the year positive if it ends the first five trading days of the year positive.

It has worked between 80 to 90 percent of the time.

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And it worked last year.

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And according to Art Cashin, UBS Financial Services Director of Floor Operations, traders are chatting about it again.

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From this morning's Cashin's Comments:

What Does Wednesday's Rally Indicate? – Lots of folks tried to extrapolate Wednesday's rally to indicator status. As Steven Russolillo of the WSJ notes, the predictability provided by the action of the first trading day of the year is about the same as a coin flip – it's right 50% of the time.

The first five days of trading, however, have a more discernible record. According to the very helpful Traders Almanac, the last 39 times the market rose in the first five days, it closed up on the year 33 times (84.69%). So stay tuned.

It's That Time Of Year When Traders Talk About The S&P 5-Day Rule (2024)

FAQs

What is the best time to trade the S&P 500? ›

As S&P 500 companies trade on the NASDAQ and New York Stock Exchange, traders like to trade the S&P 500 index during main market hours between 09:30 and 16:30 EST. Trading during these hours often offers greater liquidity and tighter spreads.

What is the best time to trade indexes? ›

The opening period (9:30 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time) is often one of the best hours of the day for day trading, offering the biggest moves in the shortest amount of time. A lot of professional day traders stop trading around 11:30 a.m. because that is when volatility and volume tend to taper off.

What is the 11am rule in trading? ›

It is not a hard and fast rule, but rather a guideline that has been observed by many traders over the years. The logic behind this rule is that if the market has not reversed by 11 am EST, it is less likely to experience a significant trend reversal during the remainder of the trading day.

What month is best to buy stocks? ›

Mondays and Fridays tend to be good days to trade stocks, while the middle of the week is less volatile. Historically, April, October, and November have been the best months to buy stocks, while September has shown the worst performance.

What is the best month for the S&P 500? ›

S&P 500 Has Best May Since 2009—But Only Thanks Again To These Stocks.

Should I invest in S&P 500 now or wait? ›

The S&P 500 is less than 3% away from its all-time high, making some investors hesitant to buy an index fund. There's no way to time a correction, and even if you buy at the highs, you'll likely do fine over the long run. Dollar-cost averaging could be a far better strategy, no matter what the market is doing.

What time of the month is best to trade? ›

In short, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are widely considered to be the three best days of the week to trade. Forex trading is best at the busiest times. This often means the best return on your investment, as well as the most profitable trades.

What is the best time frame for traders? ›

Time frame suitable for novice traders is between 10.15 am and 2:30 pm. But due to the subsiding of the morning stock volatility time frame between 10:00 am to 10:15 am can be ideal to grab any opportunity.

What timezone is best for trading? ›

The U.S./London markets overlap (8 a.m. to noon EST) has the heaviest volume of trading and is best for trading opportunities. The Sydney/Tokyo markets overlap (2 a.m. to 4 a.m.) is not as volatile as the U.S./London overlap, but it still offers opportunities.

What is the 3 5 7 rule in trading? ›

What is the 3 5 7 rule in trading? A risk management principle known as the “3-5-7” rule in trading advises diversifying one's financial holdings to reduce risk. The 3% rule states that you should never risk more than 3% of your whole trading capital on a single deal.

What is the 3 trading rule? ›

3% Rule: This suggests risking no more than 3% of your trading capital on any single trade. This helps limit the potential loss from any one trade and protects your overall capital. 5% Rule: This rule applies to the total risk exposure across all your open trades.

What is the 15 minute rule in trading? ›

Here is how. Let the index/stock trade for the first fifteen minutes and then use the high and low of this “fifteen minute range” as support and resistance levels. A buy signal is given when price exceeds the high of the 15 minute range after an up gap.

What is historically the worst month for stocks? ›

One of the historical realities of the stock market is that it typically has performed poorest during the month of September. The "Stock Trader's Almanac" reports that, on average, September is the month when the stock market's three leading indexes usually perform the poorest.

What month do stocks go down the most? ›

The September Effect refers to the historically weak stock market returns observed during the month of September. In fact, September has been the worst performing month, on average, going back nearly a century.

What is the stock market prediction for 2024? ›

The Big Money bulls forecast that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end 2024 at about 41,231, 9% higher than current levels. Market optimists had a mean forecast of 5461 for the S&P 500 and 17,143 for the Nasdaq Composite —up 9% and 10%, respectively, from where the indexes were trading on May 1.

What is the 5 day rule for the S&P? ›

According to the rule, the S&P 500 ends the year positive if it ends the first five trading days of the year positive. It has worked between 80 to 90 percent of the time.

What is the best way to trade the S&P 500? ›

Since the S&P 500 is simply a measure of its underlying stocks' performance, you can't invest in it directly—instead, you can buy S&P 500 index funds through either a mutual fund or ETF that strives to match the performance of the S&P 500 market index.

What time does the S&P 500 start trading? ›

When does the market open? It's certainly a simple question, but one with more answers than you'd think. The regular trading hours for the U.S. stock market, which includes the Nasdaq Stock Market (Nasdaq) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), are 9:30 am to 4 pm, except on stock market holidays.

Should I invest $10,000 in S&P 500? ›

Assuming an average annual return rate of about 10% (a typical historical average), a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 could potentially grow to approximately $25,937 over 10 years.

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