Forex Report on EUR/USD | Technical Analysis | Updated for 12.19.2023 (2024)

Here is our latest Forex market and technical analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair.

Trading Performance Measures

• Percentage Changes:
  • Day-Over-Day Change: An increase of 0.56% from the previous day.
  • Week-Over-Week Change: A significant increase of 2.03% over the past week.
  • Month-Over-Month Change: The pair shows a moderate increase of 1.25% over the past month.
• Correlation and Trading Condition:
  • Weekly Correlation vs. FGC Dollar Indicator: A strong negative correlation at -0.9645.
  • Market Condition: ‘Neutral’ continues, suggesting a balanced market without strong bullish or bearish sentiment.

• Key Support/Resistance Levels:
  • Lower Extreme: 1.0851
  • Lower Level: 1.0896
  • Mid-Level: 1.0940
  • Upper Level: 1.0985
  • Upper Extreme: 1.1030
• Predictive Trading Range Probabilities:
  • Upper Range (0.00% Chance): More Than or Equal to 1.1147
  • Mid-Range (2.14% Chance): More Than or Equal to 1.1031
  • Lower Range (66.71% Chance): Less Than or Equal to 1.0960

Analysis

• Continued Positive Movement: The increase in the day-over-day and week-over-week changes suggests a growing strength of the Euro against the Dollar.
• Strong Negative Correlation: The persistent strong negative correlation with the FGC Dollar Indicator (our proprietary US Dollar Indicator) is essential for assessing currency strength against other Forex pairs.
• Neutral Market Outlook: The EUR/USD Forex Pair remains in a ‘Neutral’ state, implying a balanced trading environment without extreme pressure in either direction. Again, this posture seems logical ahead of the Core PCE Price Index, the preferred inflation measure of the Feds, later this week.
• Trading Strategy Considerations:
  • The latest support and resistance levels indicate that 1.0940 (Mid-Level) might serve as a significant pivot point for market movements.
  • The predictive trading range suggests a high probability (66.71%) of the pair crossing below 1.0960, suggesting this level as a potential resistance point in the short term.
  • The extremely low probability of reaching the upper range (0.00% for 1.1147 and 2.14% for 1.1031) suggests that significant upward movements are possibly unlikely.

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