"The year of Linux" kind of, sort of comes every year, wherein a few more people give it a try, and enthusiasts continue to love it. It's an OS that's gotten better for gaming and one that's made such an imprint on Windows Central that not all of us even bother much with Windows anymore.
Heck, Germany (part of it, to be specific) is taking another stab at ditching Windows for Linux. Many tiny pieces of the global pie are abandoning Windows in favor of the freedom of Linux and the cost-cutting benefits it entails. The question is, regardless of merit, does it stand any sort of chance of eclipsing Windows' PC market share in the short term or long term?
That is the tantalizing question at the kernelled core of the great Linux debate, and it's the one we reached out to analysts to hear their thoughts on.
It's here, even if you don't see it
Linux can be a bit of a ghost. If you look at where it resides, desktop PCs are the tip of the iceberg. It's invisibly sifting around in the background of a great many technologies.
But while Linux may be a starting point for those in the appliance device space (say, someone cooking up a competitor to the Xbox Series X), when it comes to desktop PCs, the foreseeable future is dominated by Windows.
Gartner VP Analyst Steve Kleynhans addressed that point, elaborating on where the actual fight lies. "The biggest challenge to Windows on anything that looks like a PC is probably Chrome OS," he said, stating that Linux and Windows are not in a head-to-head fight on the PC. "Could Linux continue to grow? Yes. But it's not likely to grow as a direct competitor replacing Windows."
He acknowledged the enthusiast population, while also citing the appliance device relevancy and another subsection of Linux users out there. "There is also a large body of users using Linux, who don't realize the fact," he said. "These are when Linux is used as the embedded OS on a terminal or thin client." He qualified that remark by adding, "We don't count these as true Linux use."
However, while Linux does have its place in the world and crops up more often than people may realize, Kleynhans didn't see it as taking the business world by storm anytime soon (a space that remains a key pillar of Windows' operations). "Many enterprises are trying to move away from dealing with the technical nitty-gritty of managing a platform and as such have little interest in learning a new platform — regardless of what possible benefits it might bring," he said.
True year of Linux, some other year
Every year is a special year for Linux in some way, shape, or form, but in terms of eating Windows' lunch, that's probably not in the cards for a long time, if ever.
Forrester Senior Analyst Andrew Hewitt gave figures to further bolster the argument that Linux is a long ways off from toppling Windows. "Overall, just 1% of employees report usage of Linux on their primary laptop used for work," he said. "That's compared to 60% that still use Windows, and small numbers that use Chrome OS and macOS on a global basis. It is very unlikely that Linux will overtake Windows as the main operating system."
With that said, Hewitt did foresee diversification and growth when it came to Linux, Chrome OS, and macOS, but nothing to a degree that would signal Windows is at risk of losing its dominant market share.
"We commonly see Linux used in Virtual Desktop Infrastructure (VDI) deployments," he stated, mentioning that he'd expect growth there since "VDI has grown 2% year over year according to our 'State Of VDI, 2021' report."
In other words, Linux isn't taking the average user's PC world by storm or crowding out the best Windows laptops anytime soon, but the platform and its distros are making ripples in other sectors. Will they become waves? We won't know for a while, based on current figures.
Get the Windows Central Newsletter
All the latest news, reviews, and guides for Windows and Xbox diehards.
Robert Carnevale is the News Editor for Windows Central. He's a big fan of Kinect (it lives on in his heart), Sonic the Hedgehog, and the legendary intersection of those two titans, Sonic Free Riders. He is the author of Cold War 2395. Have a useful tip? Send it to robert.carnevale@futurenet.com.
I'm an enthusiast deeply immersed in the world of operating systems, particularly Linux and Windows. My expertise extends to the nuances of their development, functionality, and market dynamics. Over the years, I've closely followed the evolution of Linux as an alternative to Windows, not just in theory but in practical applications across various domains.
The article "The year of Linux" delves into the ongoing debate about Linux's potential to surpass Windows in the PC market share. Drawing on my firsthand knowledge, I can dissect the key concepts presented in the article:
-
Linux's Growth and Enthusiast Appeal: The article acknowledges that the appeal of Linux continues to grow, particularly among enthusiasts. This aligns with the general trend observed in the tech community, where more individuals are experimenting with Linux, attracted by its open-source nature and customizable features.
-
Linux's Impact on Gaming: It highlights Linux's improvement for gaming, a domain traditionally dominated by Windows. This shift is significant, showcasing Linux as a viable gaming platform and challenging Windows in an area where it has historically excelled.
-
Windows Central's Perspective: The article mentions that Windows Central, a prominent source for Microsoft-related news, recognizes Linux's impact to the extent that some users no longer bother much with Windows. This attests to the perceptible influence of Linux on the tech landscape.
-
Global Movement Away from Windows: The piece discusses how a fraction of the global user base is abandoning Windows for Linux, emphasizing the allure of Linux's freedom and cost-cutting benefits. This signifies a broader trend where users are actively considering alternatives to Windows.
-
Germany's Shift to Linux: The article refers to Germany's (or part of it) attempt to ditch Windows for Linux. This case study exemplifies a real-world scenario where a significant entity is exploring Linux as a viable replacement for Windows.
-
Analysis from Gartner VP Analyst Steve Kleynhans: Gartner's perspective, as presented by Steve Kleynhans, introduces the idea that the biggest challenge to Windows comes from Chrome OS rather than Linux. He highlights Linux's relevance in appliance devices but suggests it may not directly compete with Windows on traditional PCs.
-
Enterprise Perspective on Linux: Steve Kleynhans also emphasizes that many enterprises are reluctant to adopt Linux due to the technical complexities involved. This insight underscores the challenges Linux faces in gaining dominance, particularly in the business world.
-
Data from Forrester Senior Analyst Andrew Hewitt: Forrester's Andrew Hewitt provides statistical data, stating that only 1% of employees globally use Linux on their primary work laptops, while Windows still maintains a dominant 60%. This data supports the argument that Linux has a long way to go before challenging Windows' market share.
-
Linux in Virtual Desktop Infrastructure (VDI) Deployments: Hewitt anticipates growth for Linux in Virtual Desktop Infrastructure (VDI) deployments, showcasing a niche where Linux is making strides. This suggests that while Linux may not dominate personal PCs, it is finding traction in specific professional use cases.
In summary, while Linux continues to make strides and has a growing enthusiast base, the consensus from industry analysts and data suggests that it faces significant hurdles in challenging Windows' dominance in the PC market, particularly in the foreseeable future. The article provides a well-rounded view of the Linux vs. Windows debate, incorporating insights from various perspectives within the tech ecosystem.
