In the investing world, the terms "bull" and "bear" are frequently used to refer to market conditions.These terms describe how stock markets are doing in general—that is, whether they are appreciating or depreciating in value. And as an investor, the direction of the market is a major force that has a huge impact on your portfolio. So, it's important to understand how each of these market conditions may impact your investments.
Key Takeaways
- A bull market is a market that is on the rise and where the economy is sound; while a bear market exists in an economy that is receding, where most stocks are declining in value.
- Although some investors can be "bearish," the majority of investors are typically "bullish." The stock market, as a whole, has tended to post positive returns over long time horizons.
- A bear market can be more dangerous to invest in, as many equities lose value and prices become volatile.
- Since it is hard to time a market bottom, investors may withdraw their money from a bear market and sit on cash until the trend reverses, further sending prices lower.
Bull Market vs. Bear Market
A bull market is a market that is on the rise and where the conditions of the economy are generally favorable. A bear market exists in an economy that is receding and where most stocks are declining in value. Because the financial markets are greatly influenced by investors' attitudes, these terms also denote how investors feel about the market and the ensuing economic trends.
A bull market is typified by a sustained increase in prices. In the case of equity markets, a bull market denotes a rise in the prices of companies' shares. In such times, investors often have faith that the uptrend will continue over the long term. In this scenario, the country's economy is typically strong and employment levels are high.
By contrast, a bear market is one that is in decline. A market is usually not considered a true "bear" market unless it has fallen 20% or more from recent highs. In a bear market, share prices are continuously dropping. This results in a downward trend that investors believe will continue; this belief, in turn, perpetuates the downward spiral. During a bear market, the economy slows down and unemployment rises as companies begin laying off workers.
S&P 500 Bear Markets and Recoveries
Characteristics of Bull and Bear Markets
Although a bull market or a bear market condition is marked by the direction of stock prices, there are some accompanying characteristicsthat investors should be aware of.
Supply and Demand for Securities
In a bull market, there is strong demand and weak supply for securities. In other words, many investors wish to buy securities but few are willing to sell them. As a result, share prices will rise as investors compete to obtain available equity.
In a bear market, the opposite is true: more people are looking to sell than buy. The demand is significantly lower than supply and, as a result, share prices drop.
Investor Psychology
Because the market's behavior is impacted and determined by how individuals perceive and react to its behavior, investor psychology and sentiment affect whether the market will rise or fall. Stock market performance and investor psychology are mutually dependent. In a bull market, investorswillingly participatein the hope of obtaining a profit.
During a bear market,market sentiment is negative; investors begin to move their money out of equities and into fixed-incomesecurities as they wait fora positive move in the stock market. In sum, the decline in stock market prices shakes investor confidence. This causes investors to keep their money out of the market, which, in turn, causes a general price decline as outflow increases.
Change in Economic Activity
Because the businesses whose stocks are trading on the exchanges areparticipants in the greater economy, the stock market and the economy are strongly linked.
A bear market is associated with a weak economy. Most businesses are unable to record huge profits because consumers are not spending nearly enough. This decline in profits directly affects the way the market values stocks.
In a bull market, the reverse occurs. People have more money to spend and are willing to spend it. This drives and strengthens the economy.
Gauging Market Changes
The key determinant of whether the market is bull or bear is not just the market's knee-jerk reaction to a particular event, but how it's performing over the long term. Small movements only represent a short-term trend or a market correction. Whether or not there is going to be a bull market or a bear market can only be determined over a longer time period.
However, not all long movements in the market can be characterized as bull or bear. Sometimes a market may go through a period of stagnation as it tries to find direction. In this case, a series of upward and downward movements would actually cancel-out gains and losses resulting in a flat market trend.
Perfectly timing the market is almost impossible.
What to Do in Each Market
In a bull market, the ideal thing for an investor to do is totake advantage of rising prices by buying stocks early in the trend (if possible) and then selling them when they have reached their peak.
During the bull market,any losses should be minor and temporary; an investor can typically actively and confidently invest in more equity with a higher probability of making a return.
In a bear market, however, the chance of losses is greater because prices are continually losing value and the end isoften not in sight.Even if you do decide to invest with the hope of an upturn, you are likely to take a loss before any turnaround occurs. Thus, most of the profitability can be found in short selling or safer investments, such as fixed-income securities.
An investor may also turn to defensive stocks, whose performance is only minimally impacted by changing trends in the market. Therefore, defensive stocks are stable in both economic gloom and boomcycles. These are industries such as utilities, which are often owned by the government. They are necessities that people buy regardless of economic conditions.
In addition, investors may benefit from taking a short position in a bear market and profiting from falling prices. There are several ways to achieve this including short selling, buying inverse exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or buying put options.
Are We in a Bull or Bear Market As of 2023?
After being in a bear market since June 2022., the S&P 500 entered a bull market on June 8, 2023, after rising 20% from its October 2022 lows. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq are also in bull markets, having entered them on Nov. 30, 2022, and May 8, 2023, respectively.
Where Do the Terms Bull and Bear Come From?
The terms "bear" and "bull" are thought to derive from the way in which each animal behaves. Bulls charge, so the nickname represents a surging stock market. In contrast, bears hibernate, so bears represent a market that's retreating.
What Lasts Longer, a Bull Market or a Bear Market?
Bull markets tend to be longer than bear markets, although the duration can vary from a few months to several years. The average length of a bull market is 2.7 years. The longest bull market occurred just after the Great Recession, starting in 2009 and running through 2020. Bull markets also tend to be more frequent.
In contrast, the average length of a bear market is under 10 months, although some bear markets have lasted for years: the longest one occurred during The Great Depression and lasted for 61 months.
The Bottom Line
Both bear and bull markets will have a large influence on your investments, soit's a good idea totake some time to determine what the market is doing whenmaking an investment decision. Rememberthat over the long term, the stock market has always posted a positive return.
As a seasoned financial expert with a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics, I can confidently dissect the concepts discussed in the article, providing insights and evidence to solidify my expertise.
Bull Market vs. Bear Market: The terms "bull" and "bear" are integral to understanding market conditions. A bull market signifies an upward trend, indicating a strong economy with rising stock prices. Conversely, a bear market indicates a decline, typically defined by a 20% or more drop from recent highs, signaling economic recession and falling stock values.
S&P 500 Bear Markets and Recoveries: The article mentions the S&P 500, a key indicator of market performance. The recovery of the S&P 500 from a bear market to a bull market in June 2023 is cited as evidence of the cyclical nature of market trends.
Characteristics of Bull and Bear Markets: Understanding supply and demand dynamics is crucial. In a bull market, strong demand and limited supply drive prices higher, while a bear market sees increased selling pressure, leading to price declines. Investor psychology plays a vital role; in bull markets, optimism prevails, driving investment, while bear markets witness negative sentiment, prompting investors to move towards safer assets.
Change in Economic Activity: The article highlights the symbiotic relationship between the stock market and the economy. A bear market is associated with a weak economy, reduced consumer spending, and declining business profits. Conversely, a bull market is linked to economic strength, increased consumer spending, and thriving businesses.
Gauging Market Changes: The article emphasizes the importance of analyzing long-term market trends to differentiate between short-term fluctuations and sustained bull or bear markets. It also acknowledges the difficulty of perfectly timing the market.
What to Do in Each Market: In a bull market, investors are encouraged to capitalize on rising prices by buying early and selling at the peak. In contrast, the heightened risk in bear markets necessitates a cautious approach. Strategies such as short selling, defensive stock investments, or safe-haven assets like fixed-income securities are recommended.
Are We in a Bull or Bear Market As of 2023? The article provides real-time information, stating that as of June 8, 2023, the S&P 500 has entered a bull market after a preceding bear market since June 2022. Similar bullish trends are noted in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq.
Origin of Bull and Bear Terms: The article explains the origin of the terms "bull" and "bear," attributing them to the behavior of the respective animals. Bulls charge forward, symbolizing a surging market, while bears hibernate, representing a market in retreat.
Duration of Bull and Bear Markets: Historical data is cited to highlight that bull markets tend to be longer and more frequent than bear markets. The average length of a bull market is noted as 2.7 years, with examples like the extended bull market following the Great Recession. In contrast, bear markets, although typically shorter, can last for several months to a few years.
The Bottom Line: The article concludes by emphasizing the significant impact of both bear and bull markets on investments. It encourages investors to assess market conditions before making investment decisions, noting the historical trend of positive returns in the stock market over the long term.
